Unemployment
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
Australian central bank cuts growth and jobs forecasts
RBA forecasts 10% unemployment by year’s end as official says recovery will be ‘uneven’
BoE runs ‘reverse stress test’ to prepare for renewed Covid crisis
Banks may have to take drastic “defensive actions” if UK suffers another major shock, BoE says
BoE says negative rates ‘in toolbox’ and forecasts slow recovery
First “proper” forecast since Covid-19 outbreak gives little hope of a V-shaped recovery
Biden promises new Fed mandate on racial inequality
Democratic candidate wants Fed to take responsibility for economic concerns of Black Lives Matter movement
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says
Female workers badly hit by pandemic job losses – IMF economist
Lower-paid workers hit hardest both by 2008 recession and slump caused by pandemic
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire” and activity will be below pre-crisis levels “for quite a while”
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
Eurozone inflation reached 0.3% in June
Eurostat estimates show significant differences in inflationary pressures between countries
Podcast: Boston Fed backs community action on Covid-19 and racial inequality
Working Cities Challenge is not only helping economic resurgence in struggling cities, but also fostering better responses to Covid-19 and racial inequality, official explains
Bernanke and Yellen join call for new fiscal stimulus in US
Former Fed chairs among 148 economists warning of “disastrous” effects if Congress fails to act
US economy entering ‘bounce back’ phase – Powell
Fed chair forced to defend move to follow through with corporate bond purchases in Senate hearing
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Fed promises to keep buying assets at current rate
Fed will hold accommodation in place for “however long it takes”, chair Jerome Powell says; FOMC releases first projections this year
US unemployment falls sharply in May
Unemployment rate declined to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, despite widespread fears it would rise
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper