Trade
Book notes: Our dollar, your problem, by Kenneth Rogoff
An excellent overview of the evolution of the world economy during the last seven decades, and a warning against complacency
The future of money
Central banks may require more flexible inflation targets and facilitate wider payments interoperability to maintain trust and the ‘singleness’ of money. By Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput
Ex-OCC chief Michael Hsu on the impact of an America-first agenda
The former acting comptroller of the currency speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the future of the US Treasury market, Fed independence, financial de-regulation, the Genius Act and international co-operation
Thailand holds rates as trade talks with US continue
Central bank says tariffs are among reasons for projected economic slowdown in 2025
Bowman is latest Fed member to call for July rates cut
Vice-chair for supervision joins Waller in saying risks to growth outweigh risks to inflation
Global macro shifts: can emerging markets navigate a fragmented world?
Franklin Templeton expects certain emerging markets to benefit during the realignment of global political and trading blocs
Paraguay’s Carvallo Spalding on resilience and cutting its inflation target
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) governor speaks about lowering the inflation target to 3.5%, opening up to foreign investors and promoting inclusion through digital payments
PBoC’s Pan outlines vision for multi-currency international order
Governor describes SDR-based system in which major currencies would “co-exist and compete”
Tariffs do not solve tensions but erode global growth – Lagarde
In speech to the PBoC, ECB president says countries with surpluses and deficits must both try to find solutions
BoK expresses ‘grave concern’ over Korean economy
Governor says stimulus needed, but cautions against expecting too much from rate cuts
A fireside chat with BIS head Agustín Carstens
The lifetime achievement award-winner speaks with Chris Jeffery about how experiencing inflation shaped his career, gaps in economic theory and macro-pru governance, the future of money and the importance of international co-operation
Book notes: The measure of progress: counting what really matters, by Diane Coyle
The book offers important insights into national income data compilation that are frequently ignored by economists
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
BoE governor calls for closer ties between UK and EU
Bailey says Brexit’s negative effects on trade need to be minimised
Trends in reserve management 2025: survey results
Insights on strategies in anticipation of tariffs, interest rate divergence and geopolitical risk, FX diversification and de-dollarisation, as well as bitcoin in reserves, FX interventions and gold
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
ECB says tariff shocks ‘continue to reverberate’
Stability review says risk of slowdown has “increased markedly”, though banks are better placed than in 2008
Romania opts to hold, citing domestic and global uncertainty
Central bank cites fluctuating commodity prices, tariff risks and volatility resulting from national politics
Book notes: Smart money: how digital currencies will win the new Cold War, by Brunello Rosa with Casey Larsen
This alarmist book, although lacking nuance, provides a lucid account of how CBDCs could play a decisive role in geopolitical dominance
What drove the Taiwan dollar surge?
Foreign speculators, carry unwinds and central bank inaction fuelled the 10% move, not just life insurers, say traders