Phillips curve
Rethinking policy transmission in the age of AI
Managing machine expectations will require analytical innovation and potentially new forms of oversight, argues Elisa Vilorio de Painter
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
Imported inflation waning but still present – BoE’s Dhingra
MPC member tells panel that another energy shock could still trigger renewed price hikes in UK
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”
Current US wage trends may be here to stay – NY Fed research
Researchers present new tools for predicting wage growth in US
Joachim Nagel on the ECB’s terminal rate, fiscal policy, model relevance and the digital euro
The Deutsche Bundesbank president speaks about compromise on the Governing Council, rolling back PEPP, the need to implement Basel III and the chances of a revised Stability and Growth Pact
Eurozone soft landing depends on Phillips curve – Schnabel
Executive board member says evidence is hard to read, calling for “robust” policy-making
A letter to Andrew Bailey
As the Bank of England struggles to bring inflation down, Jagjit Chadha warns the governor not to let markets take control
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner helped lay the foundations of modern macroeconomics. Now he is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput