Oil
Recovery increasingly resilient; inflation predictions down – ECB
GDP forecasts revised up and ECB says recovery is “broadening”, but inflation projections revised down
Riksbank paper studies impact of oil on world business cycle
Researchers find possible solution to macro puzzles by introducing oil shocks into a model of the global economy
Olsen highlights the importance of responsible investment
New ethics rules saw numerous companies excluded from the GPFG last year
Norway’s oil fund delivers strong returns in 2016
Fund enjoys nearly 7% growth, with strong equity performance leading the way; strategy envisages work to improve efficiency and overhaul investment platform
Norway’s Olsen warns of dangers of dipping too deeply into oil fund
Norges Bank governor says risk of a sharp decline in the fund’s value becomes much greater if the government increases its oil revenue spending
Capital account management could prevent ‘commodity curse’, BIS paper shows
Authors suggest options for small open economies dealing with commodity booms; solutions could prevent reductions in welfare and support the tradable sector
Azerbaijan raids oil fund as central bank reserves dwindle
President allocates chunk of oil fund to top up central bank reserves, as pressure on the manat continues
Venezuela central bank launches new banknotes amid soaring inflation
The bolivar has weakened to unprecedented levels as inflation soars and political instability engulfs the nation; new note series’ highest denomination is 200 times larger than current highest
Norges Bank recommends higher equity share for oil fund
Declining global growth and lower volatility suggest a larger equity share is both desirable and manageable, central bank says
Gulf central banks should act to boost liquidity – IMF report
Improved liquidity assistance frameworks, better forecasting and deeper Islamic liquidity markets would help ease conditions
Negative oil shocks outweigh positive ones, says Irish paper
Researcher uses TVAR model to examine eurozone data; concludes size of oil price and economic shock also affects impact on inflation
Oil price rises and US GDP growth have ‘complex relationship’ – paper
Paper studies interaction of oil price and economic growth in US from 1875 to 2016
Dominican Republic central bank hikes despite falling inflation
Central bank action comes as economy grows more than expected, although inflation is well below target; US factors prove a concern
Lagarde welcomes ‘major policy shift’ in Saudi Arabia
IMF managing director says efforts to reduce reliance on oil are “very welcome”, although Gulf countries more generally need to continue their fiscal adjustment
Commodity prices create ‘strong pressure’ to lower interest rates – paper
Policy response to commodity price fluctuations has been stronger in the US, paper finds; commodity price shocks follow two cycles, with the most recent having impacts on policy rates
Fiscal policies the answer to commodity decline in Africa – BIS paper
Counter-cyclical policies have done all that they can, paper says, adding it is now time for exchange rate and fiscal policies to bear the burden and spur growth
Sama intervenes to ease liquidity pressure on banks
Saudi central bank makes deposits worth over $5 billion at commercial banks struggling with low liquidity, and introduces new repo facilities
NBIM’s Q2 returns hit by Brexit turbulence
Second-quarter returns of 1.3% held back by European equities and UK in particular; real estate investments register second negative quarter
IMF paper examines drivers of India’s disinflation
‘Backward-looking’ expectations and domestic institutional structures amplified shocks, paper says; only 15% of India’s deflation is attributed to a decline in oil price
IMF paper offers alternative explanation for Venezuelan inflation
Working paper argues fall in oil prices combined with restrictions in foreign exchange best explains hyperinflation in Venezuela, rather than a self-reinforcing rise in expectations
Sarb deputy sees reasons for ‘cautious optimism’
‘Green shoots of recovery’ are starting to show, says Groepe; several and more fundamental patterns suggest the economy is on the mend
IMF staff urge oil-reliant countries to strengthen liquidity frameworks
Low oil prices likely to harm liquidity, raising the need for improved facilities and forecasting; risk of delayed surge in non-performing loans
Algeria’s longest serving governor dismissed
President dismisses Laksaci after 15 years of service at central bank; head of state-run Banque Extérieure d'Algérie Mohamed Loukal to take helm
Trinidad and Tobago governor predicts GDP contraction of up to 2.5%
Contraction of 2.5% expected amid falling oil prices; co-ordinated fiscal, monetary and structural reforms would increase recovery's chance of success, Hilaire says