Monetary policy
Capital outflows look manageable as Iceland moves to lift controls – central bank
A “stress test” of potential outflows implies the Icelandic financial system and central bank reserves will cope when capital controls are lifted; the government bill prepares to release funds
Urjit Patel to take over from Rajan at RBI
Deputy governor led work on India’s new inflation-targeting framework; appointment seen as signal of government’s commitment to current policy
Explicit communication from Sarb helped agents predict rate hikes – paper
Authors compare forecasts from 2013 and 2014 to identify whether specific terminology affected forecasting; “rising cycle” talk shaped expectations, paper shows
Mongolia’s central bank raises rates 450bp in bid to stop currency slide
Rate hike was prompted by fall in currency’s value since late June; central bank says it continues to see encouraging trends in currency flows
Japanese researchers model success and failure of international cooperation
Various factors can lead to cheating on global monetary policy cooperation, paper published by the BoJ finds – but careful design can help the agreement hold up
Atlanta Fed president ‘not prepared to rule out’ further rate rise this year
Despite “troubling” headline GDP growth figures, “final real sales” figures point to US economy maintaining momentum and heading for third-quarter growth, Dennis Lockhart says
Low inflation and tighter credit gave room for cut, RBA minutes show
Inflation looks likely to remain low for some time, board members note, while tighter lending standards make adverse effects of a cut less likely
UK inflation climbs in first post-Brexit data
Prices rose 0.6% in the year to July, the highest inflation number for nearly two years, with signs the effect of the UK’s Brexit vote may be starting to feed through
San Francisco Fed chief calls for policy target re-think
John Williams calls for central banks to consider raising their inflation targets or replacing them with nominal GDP targets; lower natural interest rates seem “poised to stay”, he argues
RBNZ cuts rates and expects inflation to weaken further in short term
New Zealand central bank expresses concern over falling inflation in economy generally and rapidly rising prices in housing sector
Riksbank paper looks to medieval Europe for ZLB solution
Idea of a “Gesell tax” on holdings of cash could help central bankers overcome the zero lower bound – an idea already tested by kings in medieval Europe
US unconventional monetary policy most effective in financial crisis, paper argues
Conventional and unconventional monetary policies in the United States work through distinct channels, with different levels of effectiveness in crisis conditions, researchers argue
Regulation may be fuelling covered interest parity breakdown – BoJ economists
Authors link puzzling breakdown of CIP to regulations including liquidity constraints, as well as divergent monetary policies
Rise of services in advanced economies weakens transmission of monetary policy, paper argues
The transmission of monetary policy in advanced economies is weakened by the greater prominence of services, a Bank of Spain working paper argues; researchers use data from US
Brexit a factor in BoJ’s decision to ease – deputy governor
Uncertainties from abroad, notably the UK’s vote to leave the EU, are weighing on the Japanese economy, and were a factor behind “enhanced” easing in July, Kikuo Iwata says
BoJ board members see hope in wages and oil prices – June minutes
Policy board members point to third year of wage rises and higher oil prices as hopeful indications of a turnaround in prices, though expectations are weak and consumer sentiment worsening
IMF urges Abenomics ‘reload’ as BoJ struggles
Fund tells Japanese authorities to be clearer and more systematic in setting policy, as government unveils new stimulus; working paper suggests alternative to helicopter money
Chilean minutes show widespread support for holding policy
Board unanimously votes to hold rates; one member sees tightening cycle ending, while another says lowering rates is “beyond reason”
BoE seen as ‘boxed in’ ahead of MPC vote
Forward guidance from MPC members has laid the ground work for a rate cut or other form of easing; even if the effect of a cut is minimal, a hold decision would be worse, says former committee member
Larger changes in policy statements lead to more volatility – paper
Research considers how much similarity in central bank statements on monetary policy matters for their reception
Cœuré: central bankers must be mindful of possible ‘economic lower bound’
Negative interest rates in the eurozone have not reached an “economic lower bound”, Benoît Cœuré says; support from governments’ policies and commercial banks’ business models is needed
Helicopters bearing gifts
As QE and negative rates run out of room, helicopter money could be a last resort for overstretched central banks. But its detractors say the cost of its use could be very high
Nepal to introduce interest corridor in August
There will be an initial large ‘wedge’ between rates when first introduced, official says; policy rate and floor of corridors set in relation to interbank average
RBNZ signals action ‘likely’ amid New Zealand dollar strength
Stronger than anticipated NZ dollar threatens ability to hit inflation target, RBNZ says; announcement triggers drop in currency