Macroeconomics
Central banks tend to mix research with policy functions
Institutions deploy a wide range of different governance frameworks when it comes to research
Semi-structural models are the forecast weapon of choice
Flexible modelling approach comes out on top; around half of central banks include a financial sector
Eurozone’s ageing is lowering interest rates – BoI paper
Natural real interest rate is likely to reach its lowest point around 2030, researcher finds
Bank of Italy paper looks at flatter Phillips curve
Weaker collective bargaining has played key role in flattening relationship, researchers say
Weak banks could reverse effects of policy rate cuts – ECB paper
Countercyclical buffers play crucial role in preventing “reversal interest rate” events, researchers find
ECB paper looks at interest rate-growth differential
Several factors are likely to push differential up for some eurozone countries, say researchers
Sri Lanka central bank sees signs of ‘strong recovery’
Signs of bounce-back in the economy but recent surge in virus cases could cause problems
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
ECB paper presents new measure of underlying inflation
“PCCI” measure does not exclude HICP items and gives timely notice of turning points, authors say
Information drives transatlantic policy spillovers – ECB paper
Tighter ECB policy often causes financial easing in US due to “information effect”, researcher argues
Austrian paper estimates effects of European helicopter money
Researchers use data on likely consumption of windfall income from survey of 17 European countries
Sticky prices play key role in monetary policy responses – ECB paper
Author finds different US industries’ react very differently to monetary policy decisions
Central bank research may be biased by career concerns, paper finds
Central bankers are more likely to be promoted if they find QE is effective, study shows
Flu pandemic of 1918 hit poor economies hardest – ECB paper
Researchers say evidence indicates lower income countries may be worst hit by Covid-19
Supply curves may be convex – ECB paper
Findings imply that Phillips curve is convex and fiscal policy is state-dependent, authors say
Modellers should not exclude pandemic-era data – ECB paper
Excluding pandemic data from time series would “vastly underestimate uncertainty”, authors argue
Book notes: Quest for restoring financial stability in India, by Viral Acharya
A definitive contribution to the political economy of central banking in emerging economies, but Acharya does not acknowledge the challenges moving forward
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
BoE open to heterodox tools in new research agenda
Traditional tools of economic analysis “cannot always answer every question”, says Andrew Bailey
Covid-19 could depress growth for decades – Jackson Hole paper
“Pyschological scarring” could severely stunt future investment, researchers argue
Argentina requests new IMF programme
Government and central bank say economic stabilisation is not possible without recovery
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Fed paper: market power can cause inequality and instability
Market power can explain a lot of recent undesirable “secular trends”, authors say; redistribution could have macro-prudential benefits