Labour market
Bank of England pulls trigger on rate hike
Committee split 7-2, but Carney strikes hawkish note on need for further hikes
BoE’s new MPC members disagree on future path of hikes
New deputy Dave Ramsden sees current degree of slack to be too great to warrant removal of stimulus, while Tenreyro believes it cannot “persist for too long”
Emerging market incomes continue to grow despite trade impacts – Lagarde
Trade has not impacted emerging markets as negatively as their advanced counterparts, Lagarde says, as incomes continue to grow
Markets upbeat on strengthening US wage growth figures
Non-farm payrolls drop slightly but wages appear to be gathering pace; figures impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Chicago Fed’s Evans sees little risk of inflation surge
Study by the Chicago Fed finds little evidence there could be a threshold in unemployment beyond which inflation may surge
Cleveland Fed’s Mester upbeat on prospects for US economy
Loretta Mester backs continued gradual rate rises and the commencement of balance sheet normalisation “in the near future”
Racial wage gaps in US caused by ‘harder-to-measure’ factors
Lack of opportunity plays bigger role than education and profession in racial inequality, paper finds
San Francisco Fed research explores evolution of job-matching efficiency
As people out of the labour force are included, the volatility of the job-to-job transition rate falls, economists find
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
FOMC divided on how to proceed with policy
Strong jobs growth, but below-target inflation leaves some members emphasising room to be patient, while others warn of a potential overshoot
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
BoE: market pricing implies two rate rises in next three years
Markets project first rate rise in Q3 2018, but committee says tightening may need to come sooner; MPC sees mixed picture for labour market
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
BoE’s Broadbent: globalisation has been largely a good thing
Bank of England deputy says flexible labour market has helped dull the pain of adjustment to trade shocks, while lower prices have most benefited the poorest groups
Deregulation aided women entering US labour force – paper
ECB paper finds efforts to open up the credit market from the 1970s to 90s helped reduce the gender gap in the labour force
Barbados government should cut staffing to reduce expenditure – Worrell
Government should aim to reduce its expenditure rather than raise taxes, says former central bank governor; departments should be reorganised to operate with fewer staff
Big data sheds light on income risk – Minneapolis Fed research
Better sources of data have allowed economists to gain new insights into how income risk changes over the cycle, says researcher
IMF says remittances do not balance out losses caused by emigration
Remittances are key for providing support to LAC countries in terms of fiscal and financial stability; lack of labour resources and decline in productivity outweighs remittance support
MPC dissent grows amid BoE dilemma
Rates remain on hold but committee split 5-3 as some argue the BoE’s difficult trade-off has shifted in favour of tackling inflation
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Yellen told inflation target needs revising
Economists say current economic conditions call for a revision in the inflation target; Federal Reserve should appoint commission to advise on “path forward”
Brainard turns cautious on inflation concerns
Lack of wage growth and lower than expected inflation data could slow further monetary easing, says Fed governor; interest rates are likely to rise “soon”
Protectionism is a ‘dead end’, says New York Fed president
Dudley highlights the second-round impact of protectionism, which ultimately harms higher-paying jobs; policies should foster competition and provide more assistance to workers
Considerable slack may remain in eurozone labour market – ECB
Under-utilisation of labour may affect 18% of eurozone labour force, researchers say