Labour market
Fed could raise rates ‘fairly soon’ – minutes
Minutes show committee members will be watching labour and inflation data very closely; raising rates would offer “flexibility” in responding to economic changes
Uncertainty about momentum in the labour market – RBA minutes
“Mixed” picture in Australian labour market shows unemployment increasing alongside full-time employment; spare capacity likely to persist “for some time”
Fed’s Williams says labour market figures are accurate
Current unemployment rate “accurately” reflects the state of the labour market; San Francisco Fed researches a broader measure of the market
El Salvador governor highlights benefits of increasing minimum wage
New minimum wage legislation will improve the living standards of 19.9% of households, says El Salvador governor; raise will also have positive impact on total economic growth
Harker optimistic in first speech as FOMC voting member
Inflation target set to be met this year, says Philadelphia Fed governor, noting labour force participation issues need to be addressed with legislative action
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
Inflation to reach 2% target in next six months, BoE says
MPC votes unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%; exchange rate appreciation suggests smaller overshoot of inflation target than previously forecast
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
Eurozone must urgently raise productivity, Draghi warns
ECB policy provides governments with "window of opportunity" for reform, ECB president says
Poloz urges economists to create new economic models
The rise of the service sector has changed the way productivity and output can be calculated, the Canadian governor says, musing on whether the relationship between inflation and growth could change over time
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
Financial markets should not write off uncertainty, says BoE’s Forbes
Bank of England deputy says the effects of uncertainty around Brexit could still materialise; uncertainty measures could “quickly shift”, says Forbes
Fischer examines growth dilemma
Fed vice-chairman says behaviour of inflation and output as economy normalises may provide some answers
Pressure in the Danish labour market becoming ‘more evident’
All spare resources in the labour market have already been used, report says; employment has risen by 105,000 people from Q4 2012 to Q2 2016
RBA seeks to gain ‘additional’ insight into wages – Lowe
Central bank teams up with statistical agency to gain insight into declining wage patterns; frequency of wage increases is decreasing, says RBA governor
BoE paper tackles ‘sectoral co-movement puzzle’
Adding labour market frictions and habit formation helps to solve the problem of models implying a monetary contraction produces little response in output
Factors behind weak growth in advanced economies do not apply to South Africa – Sarb deputy
Mminele says 2008 recession did not create savings glut in South Africa, suggesting other factors such as a shortage of skills are responsible
RBA’s Heath highlights changing nature of Australian workforce
Automation, ageing population and decline of industry are reshaping the labour market’s demand for skills, head of economic analysis says, with lessons for central bank recruiting
Wage Phillips curves in eurozone steepened after 2008 – paper
Germany was the exception among major eurozone economies, Bank of Italy paper argues
Kganyago justifies Sarb’s response to ‘troubling mix’ of issues
Sarb governor says the public should be “satisfied” but not “happy” with the current economic outlook, given that monetary policy has only offset some of the problems causing high inflation