Interest rates
RBI makes first rate cut of 2017
Inflation is at a record low, and growth is forecast to rebound, although the RBI is still concerned about weak transmission of the policy rate
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
Stanley Fischer analyses the factors behind low real interest rates
The economist emphasises government policy uncertainty in the US regarding health care, regulation, taxes and trade, as well as higher savings and weak investment
Malaysia starts to feel effects of Fed rate hikes
Fed rate hike in June reversed flows into Malaysian financial markets, leading to an increase in yields, a deprecation of the ringgit and a fall in the stock market; Thailand appears less affected
Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet ‘relatively soon’
Rates remain on hold as the FOMC eyes below-target inflation, while the wording change implies that action on the balance sheet could begin sooner than previously expected
Favourable inflation prompts 100bp cut in Brazilian interest rate
Central bank continues easing cycle as political uncertainty not feeding through to inflation; analysts expect another large cut this year
Neutral rate down to around 3.5% in New Zealand – RBNZ deputy
Rate is challenging to estimate but central bank’s models and surveys suggest it has fallen in recent years to around 3.5%
Trump says Yellen still in the running for renewed term
US president says he would consider reappointing Janet Yellen, although Gary Cohn and “two or three others” are in contention
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
Verbs matter in forward guidance – Italian paper
Researchers look at verbs used in ECB statements from 2002 to 2015
IMF praises Madagascar’s approach to monetary framework change
Madagascan central bank to introduce overnight deposit facility to form basis of an interest rate corridor; fund notes effects of vanilla bean shock still being felt by banks
The BoJ’s exit policy and balance sheet risks
The Bank of Japan will need to follow a meticulous sequencing of events as its ‘normalises’ monetary policy, making current concerns about negative equity appear premature
Australia’s neutral rate of interest is around 3.5% – RBA minutes
RBA minutes show hawkish slant compared with policy statement released earlier this month; central bank estimates neutral rate has fallen 150 basis points
Fed paper: portfolio holdings have ‘statistically significant’ effect on rates
Research studies composition of Fed’s Treasury portfolio and impact on yields from 1985-2016
Draghi, quo vadis?
Jesper Berg warns the eurozone's improved outlook creates a host of problems for the ECB, as it must balance competing demands
Credibility essential to Central Bank of Brazil success, says IMF
Further changes to the central bank’s inflation target could limit future policy space, fund advises, praising improved transparency of communications
Brainard cautious over further hikes in interest rates
Fed governor says she will be watching inflation “carefully” over the coming months, stating the unwinding of the balance sheet will begin ”soon”
St Louis’s Bullard on the future of the Fed and its monetary policy record
St Louis Fed president James Bullard rails against east coast dominance, favours aspects of the Choice Act and says Fed monetary policy was a “factor” that fuelled crisis
Divided Central Bank of Colombia votes to cut interest rates
Worries about inflation not returning to target spur board to cut interest rates to 5.75%; external conditions remain a concern despite slightly better inflation data
Household balance sheet adjustment a long process – Danish study
Research into patterns of consumption and saving before and after the 2008 crisis shows deleveraging can take a long time; consumption impact of rate hike is “modest”
Bank of Jamaica chooses overnight deposits for new policy rate
Bank of Jamaica continues to make changes to monetary policy framework with goal of fully fledged inflation targeting in mind
Carney comments lead to sterling wobbles
Pound leaps as markets interpret comments as sign Bank of England governor is contemplating a rate hike later this year
BoJ’s Iwata says expectations likely to shift as inflation returns
Deputy governor cites Milton Friedman in arguing that people will become more forward-looking when their wages are eroded by inflation
BoE’s Forbes points to bias among overworked MPC members
Senior Bank of England officials are overworked and heavily scrutinised, which may make it harder for them to take tough decisions, Kristin Forbes says in her final speech as an MPC member