Economics
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
US tariffs could have larger-than-expected impact – study
Author suggests trade statistics are being misreported
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
High temperatures slow down economic growth – Banxico paper
Authors say Mexico is warming faster than other countries
Losing key Chinese inputs could hurt eurozone – ECB paper
Halving of critical imports would cause drop of up to 3% in output for manufacturers, research shows
Large geopolitical shocks have outsized economic impact – paper
Researchers find non-linearities, which amplify effects on economy
Former BoE division head calls for greater focus on trust
Ex-macro-pru official says policy-makers need to monitor public’s confidence in central banks
Fed governors differ on best way to deal with Trump uncertainty
Waller says monetary policy can’t be “put on hold”, but Bowman calls for wait-and-see approach
US inflation higher or more cyclical at start of year – study
Dallas Fed research says slowing inflation is more encouraging if it takes place in January
Trump, the Fed and climate’s undeniable systemic risk
Experts disagree on the impact of the Fed’s withdrawal from the NGFS but are united about climate change’s devastating effect on the financial system
Tightening increases instability after supply shocks – IMF study
Authors say when other tools are too costly, rate hikes should be less aggressive
Branching paths: the Czech National Bank’s many modelling options
Three external reviews each recommended a different combination of models. The CNB now faces tough design choices, and must also decide how to upgrade its economic research
Fed holds rates amid pressure from White House
Powell says he has had no contact with Trump since president said he would “demand” easing of policy
BoJ raises policy rate to highest level since 2008
Policy-makers raise inflation forecasts and signal further rate rises
Inflation uncertainty spills over into US – Fed study
Lack of clarity over input costs and interest rates leads to lower levels of investment, study finds
PBoC holds key lending rates
Move comes after China hit 5% growth target for 2024, but analysts expect further easing this year
Disability poses hidden costs in US – Fed research
Authors also explore how gender gap and living alone affect financial wellbeing
Lending conditions risk re-run of 2008 crisis, says FDIC chair
Gruenberg says proliferation of non-banks is adding to financial stability risks
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
PBoC suspends government bond purchases
China's central bank moves after “persistent excess demand” causes yields to hit record lows