Economics
Share buybacks limits monetary policy- BdF paper
Use of low-cost debt for buy-backs cuts spending on employment and capital good- researchers
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
US and German economies suffer largest quarterly contraction in decades
Official figures say second quarter saw biggest US GDP decline since the Great Depression
Book notes: The state of economics, the state of the world, edited by Basu, Rosenblatt and Sepúlveda
The 2016 contributions of Nobel Prize-winning economists and others remain relevant to today
IMF research highlights limits of exchange rate flexibility
New dataset sheds light on role of dominant-currency invoicing for exchange rate dynamics
Brainard urges caution about US recovery
Bounce in activity came earlier than expected but major risks still loom, Fed board member says
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Dividends should be subject to macro-pru limits – ECB paper
Measure would reduce volatility in loan supply and equity levels, economist argues
Book notes: Stable banks in challenging times, by Andreas Dombret
Dombret’s stability and rule-based compass should be that for every aspiring central banker, worldwide
The Fed must be careful to avoid bank deposit crowding out
Rising US government debt will have a major effect on bank funding
Chicago Fed breaks ties with economist over Black Lives Matter criticism
Comments ignite debate over racism in economics, and the Fed’s role in tackling inequality
High US inflation should not be ruled out
A prolonged health crisis raises the risk that hidden inflationary pressures could be stoked
Raising inflation targets may lower neutral rate – Boston Fed paper
A higher target might therefore be less effective than current research suggests, research says
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Macro-pru policies can worsen fiscal crises – Bundesbank paper
Macro-prudential authorities must be aware of their “fiscal footprint”, researcher argues
Bundesbank paper looks at effective lower bound
Modellers can use survey information to reduce impact of ELB on yield decompositions, author says
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses profound uncertainty to which economy is subject
Eurozone approaching ECB’s worst-case scenario – Lagarde
Economy likely to shrink by over 10% in 2020, says ECB president
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
Eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight pandemic
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society