Economics
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses profound uncertainty to which economy is subject
Eurozone approaching ECB’s worst-case scenario – Lagarde
Economy likely to shrink by over 10% in 2020, says ECB president
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
Eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight pandemic
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
Covid-19 could cut eurozone GDP by 5%, 8% or 12% in 2020 – ECB
ECB publishes alternative scenarios for the uncertain economic outlook created by the pandemic
Podcast: An interdisciplinary approach to Covid-19 surveying
FedSpeak talks with the Minneapolis Fed’s Abigail Wozniak on her new real-time survey
Fed’s Jackson Hole conference hit by temporary venue closure
Kansas City Fed is considering implications and will release details when available
Fed banks ramp up Covid-19 surveying
Real-time and weekly surveys reveal deepening economic fallout
El-Erian on Covid-19 policy risks, ‘zombie’ markets and central bank capture
Former Pimco chief says Fed has gone too far, market function rules needed and chance opens for shared policy load
People: Sarb and BoE renew senior appointments
Senior Sarb and BoE officials receive new terms; MAS picks new assistant managing director; and more
Should the Fed be next to implement yield curve control?
RBA joins BoJ in effort to control longer-term rates
IMF programmes must not get too large – Bundesbank paper
Preferred creditor status can lead to large-scale IMF operations crowding out private investors
Pricing the lives saved by coronavirus policies
How does the effort to reduce risks to human life compare with the economic losses?
Economists must study ‘certainty shocks’ – Bundesbank paper
Policy-makers must distinguish between shocks which raise or lower certainty, researcher says
US health system likely to be overwhelmed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers must support massive healthcare investment and social distancing
Major economies already engaging in ‘currency wars’ – former IMF chief
De Larosière floats new commodity-based exchange rate regime
The Tokyo Olympics: downside risks prevail
BoJ’s latest stimulus effort seems to be weak, and comes at a time when benefits of hosting Olympics may be overstated
Bank of Spain paper looks at macro-pru and growth at risk
Financial cycle, time elapsed and type of measure has major impact on effectiveness – researcher
Dutch economy more volatile than European peers – DNB research
Changes to pension system, mortgage markets and budgets could reduce volatility, paper argues