Capital flows
EME financial markets are still vulnerable – BIS paper
Covid crisis has shown further market development work is needed, writes head of CGFS secretariat
Online machine learning can warn of impending crisis – Hélène Rey
Approach avoids some of the pitfalls of other methods, the economics professor says
Hélène Rey on macro-financial distortions and ‘phase 2’ of Covid-19
The LBS economics professor discusses monetary policy and financial exuberance, debt restructuring, and the use of machine learning to optimise ‘early-warning’ models to inform macro-prudential policy
EMEs should lower rates when faced with capital outflows – Fed research
Not cutting rates could worsen GDP and accelerate outflows, researchers find
Foreign exchange based macro-pru policies cut capital inflows – DNB paper
Data from 83 countries shows formal capital controls do not effectively reduce inflows – researchers
Capital controls less effective at curbing flows than macro-pru – BIS paper
Capital controls do not have significant impact on volume or composition of flows, authors find
Stress levels rising: investment funds and the Covid-19 shock
Extreme market stresses due to Covid-19 are underscoring the central role non-banks play in crisis contagion, as in 2008. Were regulators better prepared this time?
BoE paper explores global financial cycles since 1880
Cycles in credit and housing have become more pronounced, but only for some economies
Campos Neto on reforming Brazil’s economy amid Covid-19 distress
The Central Bank of Brazil governor speaks about how Brazil is managing fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the benefit of large reserves, his plans to deploy emergency asset purchases and why he favours extending the IMF’s SDR funding
People: Carmen Reinhart to be World Bank chief economist
Carmen Reinhart to take over from Penny Goldberg at World Bank; BIS picks Hong Kong hub head; Libra Association appoints chief executive
Central banks may have to become ‘dealers of last resort’ – BIS economists
EMEs have not overcome “original sin” by deepening local currency bond markets, authors warn
Concentrated firepower: central banks must expand their arsenal
Philip Turner argues central banks should be prepared to go further to avoid economic and financial collapse
A vaccine for the global economy
Olivier Blanchard, Peter Praet and Daniel Alpert discuss shorter- and longer-term actions to tackle the flaws exposed by the Covid-19 crisis
Banks rush to tap new dollar liquidity facilities
IIF warns of major capital flight from emerging markets as demand for Fed-backed repos surges
Central banks and banks: a changed relationship
The development of large, complex international capital markets has reshaped the relationship between central banks and their commercial counterparts
BIS research finds 20% drop in active correspondent banks
Retreat from correspondent banking could drive people into “unregulated channels”, authors warn
Competitive devaluation would harm US, Brookings paper warns
Trump’s calls to devalue currency would have damaging effects if followed, researchers say
Global property investors may undermine macro-pru – CGFS
House prices are rising and increasingly synchronised, BIS committee says
US is still an attractive FDI destination – Fed paper
FDI slowdown in 2017–18 due to corporate restructuring and reversing debt flows, researcher argues
Central Banking Awards 2020: third group launched
Awards unveiled for currency manager, initiative, economics, currency services, advisory and data
Economics in central banking: Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger
The Global Capital Allocation Project has helped pick apart the tangled network of cross-border capital flows. The work may prove essential to those looking to shore up the international monetary system
Rising US rates can be ‘good news’ for EMEs – Fed paper
Researchers examine difference in spillovers from growth- and inflation-driven rate increases
Governor of the year: Mark Carney
Carney has played a vital role in managing Brexit risks while driving efforts towards climate, payments and dollar funding reform
ETFs are exposing EMEs to global capital flows – Fed paper
Sensitivity of ETF flows to global financial conditions is 2.5 times higher than mutual fund flows, researchers find