Recession
Bank of Canada officials explain monetary policy transition
Central bank publishes first record of monetary policy meeting discussions
RBA makes ninth straight rise and forecasts more to come
Governor warns Australia will be slow to achieve its inflation target
The strong dollar, global inflation and global recession
Steve Kamin asks whether the Fed’s tight policy is pushing the world towards recession
Rethinking the CCyB
As central banks rush to replenish bank capital reserves, the countercyclical buffer may need some fine-tuning
2022: The year in review
The invasion of Ukraine left central banks facing yet another exceptional set of challenges. Central Banking looks back at the stories that made the biggest impact this year
Fed slows rate rises with 50bp increase
Powell stresses possibility of soft landing supported by “structural labour shortage”
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
The book’s breakthrough is its infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments. It is a splendid and thrilling read
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
The Central Bank of Chile governor speaks about stubbornly high prices, Fed policy spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and the need to address unconscious bias
Book notes: Zero interest rate policy and the new abnormal, by Michael Beenstock
Author's contention that asset purchases caused the low neutral rate of interest is entertaining and infuriating in equal measure
RBNZ delivers record 75bp rate rise to curb inflation
Central bank now expects policy rate to peak at 5.5% next year, up from previous estimate of 4.1%
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
This book offers new insights into the tough decisions and tremendous efforts Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker
World has ‘very little space’ for policy, says Georgieva
Carney, Georgieva, Donohoe and El-Erian agree room is limited and mistakes are punished harshly
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
Turkish central bank cuts rates despite 80% official inflation
MPC says growth rate could be slowing, and warns of pressure on current account
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan detail three theories on the causes of high inflation, as well as their implications for policy responses
Global economy faces four key risks, warns MAS chief
Ravi Menon says era of cheap money, cheap labour and cheap energy is most likely over
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
BoE’s planned procyclical capital hike bewilders banks
Some doubt regulator will go through with counter-cyclical buffer hike while forecasting recession
Bank of Mexico’s battle to restore price stability
Despite presidential attacks, former officials say a solid institutional framework preserves central bank autonomy – likely a key asset in the battle against inflation
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Tim Congdon argues that a surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 sparked heightened inflation and central banks need to refocus their attention on monetary aggregates
BoE flags global risks in ‘opaque’ commodities market
LME disruption reveals “highly leveraged” participants within financial system
Williams also expects US to avoid recession this year
Unemployment will likely rise to 4% as growth slows due to tightening process, says NY Fed head