Forecasting
Behind the scenes of the Bundesbank’s capacity-building programme
A multi-year effort has helped shore up expertise at West Balkan central banks. Will African and former-CIS institutions be equally responsive to Eurosystem technical assistance?
European central banks opt to hold
Albania, Czech Republic, Poland, Serbia and Sweden keep rates constant
Norway and Moldova are first in Europe to hike rates on Iran war
Norges Bank cites broad inflation concerns, but Moldova points to conflict-induced energy spike
Trends in reserve management 2026: survey results
101 central banks, responsible for $9.5trn+ reserves, reveal exclusive data on FX interventions, if the US dollar is still seen as a safe-haven currency and approaches to investing in 20+ currencies
Dark corners: the renewed push for risk-based monetary policy
Central banks are still struggling to perfect models, scenario analysis and risk communication
AI surges as focus for strategic planning
But digital transformation is still the most widespread goal of planners
Sama’s Al-Sayari on financial resilience and the future of the riyal
The Saudi Central Bank governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the Middle East conflict, the transformation of the Saudi economy, improving prudential oversight and contingency planning, and the development of the fintech and tokenised ecosystem
Regulators having to abandon silos in age of AI, says tech exec
Central Banking Meetings hear how technological revolution is shaping supervisors’ responses
‘Rolling windows’ method may help evaluate big data forecasts
Barbara Rossi presents new approach at ECB’s AI conference
Central Banking Awards 2026: the winners in full
Awards recognise extraordinary achievements in another challenging year for central banks
BIS authors say Bistro should be on central banks’ menu
Economists say new LLM is better at projecting inflation than standard econometric models
ECB holds rates, predicts 2.6% inflation for 2026
Lagarde presents gloomy outlook for eurozone inflation and growth as energy prices spike
Artificial intelligence initiative: Bank of Namibia
A concerted effort to implement AI has delivered efficiency gains within and across the financial sector
People: Braddick to take charge at UK’s prudential watchdog
Plus: BoE also appoints first executive director for monetary policy
RBA did not lose focus on inflation, says deputy governor
Hauser says last year’s cuts were based on assumption that price levels in Australia would be lower
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
QT ‘crucial’ if ECB is to tackle future crises, says Nagel
Bundesbank president says dollarisation by way of stablecoins could weaken European sovereignty
IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Sveriges Riksbank holds rates, signals longer-term pause
Swedish economy continues to grow, despite ‘dramatic’ geopolitical developments, bank says
BoE’s new forecast evaluation unpacks causes of errors
Global shocks and wage growth led bank to underestimate inflation persistence