Central Banking
ECB researchers examine flight to safety during sovereign debt crisis
Working paper tracks geographical distribution of capital flight, finding different movements by intra-eurozone and external investors; movements ceased when OMTs were unveiled
Spanish paper puts crisis legacy into context
Working paper suggests long-run trends in population and productivity growth could hamper the ability of policy-makers to address the legacy of the crisis
Greek deflation continues to bite
Official data shows prices falling by 1.3% in July while house prices continue a steep decline
BIS economists warn of emerging market policy dilemma
Emerging markets are increasingly exposed to monetary policy in developed economies, transmitted via lower long-run rates, and it is not clear what central banks can do about it
African central banks must heed changes to inflation drivers, study argues
IMF working paper argues policy-makers in sub-Saharan Africa may have to pay more attention to inflation now demand shocks exert greater influence on prices
Chile and IMF divided on potential growth
Latest staff report reveals difference in views on long-term growth of the Chilean economy, in line with earlier comments made by the central bank governor
ECB paper models joint default risk with fat tails
Researchers reject normal distribution in favour of one with fatter tails, find ‘unprecedented’ tail risks in 2011-12 fell sharply after the OMT announcement
Insurers call for clarity on US agency risk weightings
Capital treatment under Solvency II unclear, say securitisation specialists and insurers
Bank of England faces conundrum from contradictory data
Economy appears to be giving contradictory signals as slack shrinks and wages rise but employment disappoints and inflation stays low; MPC votes for hold
RBA’s Ellis is grateful lending standards to first-time buyers have not eased
Head of financial stability tells standing committee the prevalence of investors in the housing market could be pricing aspiring first-time buyers out of a move, but only ‘at the margin’
Bangladesh Bank will oversee creation of $500 million fund
World Bank and Bangladesh Bank putting up the money to finance longer-term projects in the economy, with some cash ring-fenced for ‘greening initiatives’
Nigeria bans foreign currency cash deposits
Central bank move comes as part of a clampdown on ‘illicit funds’ passing through banks; follows a series of measures aimed at stabilising exchange rate
BoE’s McCafferty breaks ranks in first new-style monetary policy meeting
BoE holds first monetary policy meeting under new setup and launches new format for policy communications, including inflation report redesign
Ruble plummets on Fed rate hike expectations
As speculation on the timing of a Fed rate hike heats up, emerging market currencies are tumbling
Bundesbank’s Buch casts doubt on Greek debt relief as talks end
Deputy president takes stance at loggerheads with IMF as latest round of negotiations draws to a close; Greek finance minister strikes upbeat note
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Market expectations respond to contractionary shocks, Chilean paper argues
Monetary expectations in major eurozone economies are responsive to contractionary shocks but not expansionary ones, a paper published by the Chilean central bank argues
Hungarian council reflects on gradual pace of rate cuts
Several council members suggest the Central Bank of Hungary was able to make a series of ‘cautious reductions’ in the interest rate because it had gained credibility
Bank of Central African States floats novel way of pooling reserves
IMF urges member states in Central African Economic and Monetary Community to comply with requirement to pool FX reserves and earnings; BEAC proposes new method for achieving this
IMF leaves door open to renminbi inclusion in SDR basket
Report says renminbi is lagging behind the four currencies in the current basket, but decision is still wide open; IMF also considering extending existing arrangement by nine months
Singapore MD imagines gleaming future for island state
Ravi Menon delivers a speech looking back from an imagined 2065, highlighting the potential of both Singapore and the wider South-east Asian economy
IMF paper warns Japan’s QQE may hit the buffers in 2017
Bank of Japan may have to look for new forms of monetary stimulus as it runs up against a shortage of government bonds, which could begin to distort markets
UK payments regulator evaluates efforts to improve access
Banks and payment systems now expected to be more transparent about criteria for access; regulator says this is now bearing fruit, but the real tests are yet to come
Stevens says RBA is working to ‘assess and contain’ housing risks
Statement following decision to hold rates notes house prices rising ‘strongly’ in Sydney, although growth is uneven between regions; other assets also buoyed by low rate environment