Central Banking
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
China’s shadow banking market dominated by banks
BIS researchers map the Chinese shadow banking system and its evolution over time, finding it contrasts with the market-based shadow banking of the US
Bank of Russia cuts policy rate as inflation reaches historic low
Balance of risks has shifted from inflation to economic growth, central bank says
Nordic and Baltic states reinforce regional financial co-ordination
Banks operating across the region require common macro-prudential measures
World does not have to be ‘hostage’ to technology – Wilkins
Finding a way to control the market power of tech giants will be important, the Bank of Canada deputy says
Bank of Mexico hikes again as inflation remains high
The prospect of tighter policy in the US affects the monetary decisions in its major southern trading partner
EBA issues updated list of risk indicators
European Banking Authority sets out latest indicators and “detailed risk analysis tools”
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Asian property developers face tougher scrutiny amid house price boom
Hong Kong and Singapore are putting more scrutiny on loans to property developers, as their housing markets continue to heat up
Fijian authorities say there are no plans to lift capital controls
IMF warns not removing controls could harm foreign investment; central bank says it will review controls with respect to the level of foreign reserves
Chicago Fed’s Evans calls for caution in raising rates
Charles Evans makes the case for delaying rate rises, fearing inflation expectations may have drifted downwards
Interest rate risk could be seed of next crisis – economists
Financial markets may have underestimated the persistence of low rates, and regulations have amplified the threat, say Srichander Ramaswamy and Philip Turner
Tunisia’s prime minister requests replacement of governor
Country is grappling with high inflation, rising public debt and dwindling reserves
Philippines central bank on hold, despite surging inflation
January inflation hits three-year high, prompting many to expect a rate hike in the coming months
Standard measures understate slack in European labour markets – ECB paper
Researchers use survey data from 24 countries to track effects of sovereign debt crisis
BoE opens door to May rate hike
MPC votes to keep current policy stance, but notes more positive inflation outlook; policy may now need to be tightened “by a somewhat greater degree”
Sudanese central bank weakens foreign exchange rate for banks
Official rates remain well above black market prices, local reports say
IMF urges Indonesian authorities to focus on policy transmission
Interest rate caps and limited banking competition have left market interest rates “slow to adapt” to changes in monetary policy
Banks running out of time to make post-Brexit eurozone applications
Banks looking to relocate should apply “by the end of the second quarter” – ECB supervisor Lautenschläger
ECB increases role of corporate debt in QE
Fall in sovereign bond purchases could allow extension of stimulus
Globalisation may reduce surpluses’ negative effects – paper
Nations recording surpluses do not necessarily create imbalances abroad, argues analysis
Education key to forex liberalisation success, says Bahamas governor
Private sector needs to base forex decisions on returns rather than “fear the erosion of wealth”, says Rolle
Central banks built up gold reserves in 2017
2017 sees eighth consecutive year of net purchases, though only a handful of central banks made substantial changes
Singapore and Malaysia to set up stock market link
The two markets have a combined market capitalisation of more than $1.2 trillion and 1,600 publicly listed companies