Research
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 1st Quarter 2005
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the First Quarter 2005. In "Preparing for the 21st Century Economy," President Anthony Santomero talks about two trends he deems to be of particular importance.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Mar 2005
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published the March 2005 issue of its Bulletin. The first article discusses the issues around foreign exchange market dysfunction and the rationale for holding reserves. It sets out the framework that the Bank used to…
SARB's Quarterly Bulletin, March 2005
The South African Reserve Bank released its March 2005 Quarterly Bulletin on 30 March. In the Bulletin the SARB said higher oil prices and buoyant domestic demand are likely to put a floor under South African inflation in the near-term, but other factors…
The real effect of banking crises
This IMF Working Paper says banking crises are usually followed by a decline in credit and growth. It asks whether this is because crises tend to take place during economic downturns, or if banking sector problems have independent negative effects on the…
Before & after the Bank of England's independence
This Working Paper investigates how the increase in transparency brought about by the Bank of England's operational independence has changed the way in which markets react immediately after economic announcements.
Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, Mar 05
The Bank of England's February/March 2005 Inflation Attitudes Survey asked about the future path of interest rates, with 56% expecting rates to rise in the next 12 months, only slightly down from the 57% recorded in November.
Transparency, disclosure and the Federal Reserve
This ECB Working Paper published on Wednesday 30 March assesses the change in Federal Reserve policy introduced in 1999, with the publication of statements about the outlook for monetary policy (and later about the balance of risks) immediately after…
IMF paper on the Stability and Growth Pact
This IMF Working Paper, Implementing the Stability & Growth Pact, analyses some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater "procedural" flexibility in the Pact's implementation may improve welfare, it…
The politics of central bank independence
The authors of this New York Fed Staff Report propose a theory to explain why, and under what circumstances, a politician endogenously gives up rent and delegates policy tasks to an independent agency, in this case the central bank.
The ECB faces a fiscal fight with its governments
There hasn't been much evidence of stability in the Stability and Growth Pact, according to this article, and now it isn't even a pact any more. Expect to see a damaging fight between the ECB and its member states, which the whole European economy will…
HKMA Quarterly Bulletin, March 2005
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has published the March 2005 issue of its Quarterly Bulletin. This issue includes a graphical framework for monitoring the property market in Hong Kong - concluding that the risk of a property bubble developing in Hong…
Additional reference exchange rates for the euro
The European Central Bank said on Tuesday 29 March that it has decided to extend the list of currencies for which daily reference exchange rates are published. As from 1 April it will in addition compute and publish euro reference exchange rates on a…
Sveriges Riksbank Inflation Report, No. 1, 2005
Sweden's central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, has published its First Inflation Report for 2005. The Riksbank's assessment is that the economic upturn will continue over the coming years and that resource utilisation will increase gradually both in…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, February 2005
The Deutsche Bundesbank has published the English version of its February 2005 Monthly Report. The report expressed cautious optimism on the outlook for German growth this year, despite the surprise contraction in gross domestic product in the final…
ECB Working Paper on central bank transparency
The ECB Working Paper "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model" published on 15 March, investigates the role of economic transparency within the framework of one of Townsend's models of 'forecasting the…
The accountability of financial sector supervisors
Policymakers' uneasiness about granting independence to financial sector regulators stems to a large extent from the lack of familiarity with the concept of accountability. This IMF Working Paper gives operational content to accountability and argues…
RBA Financial Stability Review, March 2005
The Reserve Bank of Australia published the March 2005 edition of its Financial Stability Review on 22 March. The RBA's overall assessment is that the Australian financial system is in sound condition.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Mar 2005
According to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, March 2005, activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, but at a slower rate than in February.
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, March 2005
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its March 2005 monthly report on 18 March. In the report the BOJ said exports were "starting to pick up", an improvement on its description of "flat" exports in February.
The U.S. current account and the dollar
The dollar has further to fall, according to a recent paper by Professors Blanchard, Giavazzi and Sa of MIT, and an end to the Chinese peg might - contrary to conventional thinking - be bad for Europe, they argue.
BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey - Final Results
The BIS published the final results of its 2004 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity on Thursday 17 March, showing a substantial increase in turnover in the foreign exchange market and in the growth of…
St Louis Fed's Central Banker, Spring 2005
The St. Louis Fed's Central Banker magazine for Spring 2005 has been published. The latest edition contains an article which reports that for the first time in history, Americans are favouring electronic payments in greater dollar amounts than checking…
ECB book on statistics and economic policy-making
The European Central Bank published a book entitled "Statistics and their use for monetary and economic policy-making" on 11 March. The book contains the proceedings of the second ECB conference on statistics held in Frankfurt am Main on 22 and 23 April…
Norges Bank Inflation Report, March 2005
Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, published its latest Inflation Report for March 2005 on Wednesday 16 March. The report said growth in the Norwegian economy has become more self-driven with the main driving forces being private consumption combined…