Federal Reserve System
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
US homes not adequately insured against disasters – report
Philly Fed study says most households do not have coverage to rebuild following catastrophic damage
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
‘Trump slump’ hedges rise on rate cut fears
One dealer notes five-fold increase in number of clients hedging against possibility of faster easing
Credit delinquency rise may be due to home priorities – study
Consumers choosing to repay auto and home loans rather than credit cards, say authors
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Fed researcher unveils card fraud simulation model
Author says paucity of data means simulation is increasingly important in study of payment fraud
Trust in Fed leads to lower inflation expectations – study
Political alignment shapes perceptions of central bank and views on economic outlook, NBER paper finds
Crypto custody a bit(coin) closer after US accounting U-turn
Federal banking supervisors expected to eventually relax regimes for safeguarding digital assets
Gen AI will have varying impact on graduates – Fed study
Automation will lead to job cuts but augmentation of roles could create employment, research claims
US tariffs could have larger-than-expected impact – study
Author suggests trade statistics are being misreported
Tighter policy in 2021 would have had ill effects – NY Fed study
Authors argue inflation would have fallen only modestly while global demand would have suffered
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
CRR III hangs in the balance as member states push for changes
Top EU lawmaker rejects calls to water down capital rules, while others see room for manoeuvre
Fed’s Barr tells regulators to ‘finish the job’ on Basel III
Not complying with global standards makes US banks less competitive, vice-chair for supervision says
Former BoE division head calls for greater focus on trust
Ex-macro-pru official says policy-makers need to monitor public’s confidence in central banks
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
Fed governors differ on best way to deal with Trump uncertainty
Waller says monetary policy can’t be “put on hold”, but Bowman calls for wait-and-see approach
Fed study suggests fewer fake dollar bills are in circulation
Research suggests number of counterfeit notes has fallen eightfold since 2006
Looming US Basel endgame redraft sparks calls to save IRB
Experts say 20 years of data makes credit risk models more appropriate than standardised approach
Fed researchers unveil more secure payment system model
Byzantine fault tolerant system can process 110,000 transactions per second