Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Fed officials differ on outlook for US economy
Leaders agree on policy, but differ on forecasts, measures and key concerns
Green finance: new initiatives in China, Europe and Americas
Eurosystem adopts common investment principles; China pushes climate modelling; and more
People: San Francisco Fed appoints strategy and people officer
Dallas and San Francisco Feds appoint officials; new ECB comms chief takes up role; Bank of Greece adviser to head up payments network
SF Fed’s Daly calls for major action on US inequality
Fed can use new policy framework to cut inequality but Federal government must do more, says Daly
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
Mexican sovereign debt faces tighter conditions - SF Fed paper
Liquidity premiums reached record highs in pandemic while foreign holdings fell, researchers find
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
Covid-19 is chance to lower carbon dioxide trajectory – SF Fed research
CO2 emissions likely to fall dramatically in 2020; targeted fiscal spending and telecommuting trends could cut trajectory, researchers say
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
Pandemics can depress natural rates for multiple decades – SF Fed
Real wages tend to rise gradually for 30 years after pandemics, data stretching back to 1340s shows
Covid-19 uncertainty to have long-lasting impact – SF Fed paper
Inflation may turn negative over the near and medium term, researchers estimate
More frequent ELB events cut inflation expectations – San Fran Fed
Household and businesses change spending and pricing behaviours, researchers say
Fed forecasters now less optimistic on growth – San Fran Fed paper
Forecasters have eliminated “overoptimism” bias in recent years, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
Fed ramping up climate change research efforts – Lael Brainard
Climate change could impact neutral rate, governor says; Fed can’t afford to ignore the issue, San Fran Fed’s Mary Daly adds
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
San Fran Fed president ‘biased’ towards a hot economy
Gains from a hot economy disproportionately flow to disadvantaged groups, Daly says
Negative rates could lower inflation expectations – San Fran Fed paper
Japanese inflation expectations fell after BoJ introduced negative rates, researchers find
San Fran Fed’s Daly plays down recession fears
But there are still problems in labour market, president says in online Q&A
Sterling’s fall boosted UK inflation - San Fran Fed paper
Prices of tradeable goods rose significantly more than non-tradable goods, researchers find
Fed banks collaborate on economic education
“We have a ‘power-in-numbers’ approach,” says officer at the San Francisco Fed
US labour force participation driven by fewer outflows – San Fran Fed researcher
Hot economy could be making workers less likely to leave labour force, Regis Barnichon says
Risk of hitting ZLB in next three years is low – San Francisco Fed paper
ZLB should not be a concern for monetary policy at this stage, researcher says