Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
Challenging crosscurrents from divergent monetary policy
Divergent monetary policies around the world and challenges linked to China’s economic rebalancing present central bankers with some opportunities as well as numerous threats
Fed rate rise given the ‘amber light’
Federal Reserve holds rates but hints there could be action at the December meeting; analysts still seeing mixed signals
John Taylor and William Dudley clash on Fed strategy
Stanford professor John Taylor questions Fed’s communications; New York Fed president William Dudley sets out case against following more rules-based policy
Heterogeneous beliefs may weaken effect of forward guidance, paper argues
Fixed-date and state-contingent guidance by the Federal Reserve led some market expectations to converge, but heterogeneous beliefs about inflation and consumption persisted
Chicago Fed president wants more evidence of inflation
Evans backs an ‘extra-patient approach’ to monetary policy as he airs concerns over inflation outlook and ‘asymmetric’ risks; assesses economy more cautiously than FOMC colleagues
Fed presidents talk up prospect of 2015 hike
Richmond, St Louis and San Francisco reserve bank presidents offer thoughts in wake of last week’s decision to hold rates; all suggest a hike in October or December will likely be appropriate
Boston Fed president compares forthcoming rate hikes with past tightening cycles
Eric Rosengren finds this tightening cycle is likely to differ from those of 1994 and 2004, in that rates are set to rise more gradually and stop at a lower level
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
FOMC inching towards rate hike, minutes hint
Minutes of July meeting show some members are still concerned that labour market and inflation data are not strong enough for a hike, but several think the economy is nearly ready
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
New York Fed researchers shine light on process of giving policy advice
Economists including head of research explain the process of briefing William Dudley ahead of FOMC meetings
Lockhart says Fed liftoff is ‘close’
Atlanta Fed president highlights ‘cumulative evidence’ of economic recovery and says he is willing to sanction the first rate increase in the face of ‘mixed data’
Fed mistakenly releases confidential staff forecasts
Economic projections show staff expect a more gradual pace of rate increases than most Fed officials; supposed to be released to public with a five-year lag
Yellen expects 'lift-off' later this year
Janet Yellen expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate "at some point" in 2015 with full employment "coming closer into view" and inflation on track to return to 2% in the next few years
Markets having trouble grasping ‘data-dependent' policy, says Kansas City Fed director
Getting markets to understand the concept of data-driven monetary policy remains a big challenge, according to Kansas City Fed's Troy Davig
People: Madigan returns to Fed board; FCA appoints retail supervisory head
Brian Madigan returns to the Federal Reserve Board as FOMC secretary; Financial Conduct Authority names Jonathan Davidson director of supervision, retail and authorisations; and more
Research calls on Fed to replace ‘dot plot’
Working paper published by the IMF suggests publishing a baseline forecast compiled by staff and 'endorsed' by the FOMC as a replacement for individual and anonymous projections
Radical rethink of central banking is still possible
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz's call for central banking to be "reinvented" is a timely reminder that others need to heed
Fed officials still back 2015 rate hike
Median of latest projections suggests federal funds rate will reach 0.625% by the end of the year; FOMC delivers more upbeat assessment as its keeps policy unchanged
IMF tells Fed to wait until 2016 to hike rates
Fund says keeping rates lower for longer would provide ‘valuable insurance’ against disinflation; encourages Fed to hold more press conferences and publish quarterly monetary policy report
Fed’s Brainard sees scope for ‘watchful waiting’
Governor says there may be room to ‘support further healing’ in the labour market before raising interest rates, but notes first hike could still come this year
Boston Fed president preaches patience
Eric Rosengren says it is too soon to know whether weaker economic activity at start of year is down to temporary factors or ‘broader changes in the economy’
The MPC process in light of the Warsh Review
The Bank of England’s revised MPC meeting schedule has some merits but will not add to transparency and raises the risk of news shocks, writes former member Charles Goodhart
Fischer sees shocks disrupting future path of rates
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says smooth upward path for the federal funds rate will ‘almost certainly not be realised’ given the likelihood of shocks in the US economy