Economics
Portuguese paper presents macroeconomic model for small economies
Researchers at the Bank of Portugal detail the features and applications of the Portuguese Economy Structural Small Open Analytical (Pessoa) model, which they say is useful for small economies in monetary union
IMF paper presents Global VAR model for analysing banking and sovereign risks
Researchers develop a global vector autoregression model that incorporates forward-looking contingent claims into its analysis of banking systems, sovereigns and macroeconomic conditions
Singapore becomes third RQFII renminbi hub
Deal struck between Singaporean and Chinese authorities follows hot on the heels of an agreement with London, making Singapore the third approved centre for renminbi investments
De La Rue launches post-grad scholarship with Central Bank of Barbados
One year's funding worth $17,300 on offer for a Barbadian student pursuing post-graduate studies in economics or finance mimics similar programmes elsewhere in the Caribbean
Praet says household heterogeneity key to understanding transmission mechanism
New Household Finance and Consumption Survey can bring new insights into how individual households are affected by economic shocks, says ECB chief economist
IMF paper sets parameters for model short-term real interest rate
Working paper sheds light on a ‘crucial' but overlooked question - and shows that the elasticity of interest rate volatility plays a crucial role in explaining real interest rate dynamics
Fed’s Beige Book reveals ‘modest’ employment growth
Summary of the economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts finds both employment and economic activity were ‘modest’ in September, while price pressures were ‘limited’
Structural reforms could soften austerity blow in eurozone core, paper finds
IMF researchers use integrated monetary and fiscal model to find core eurozone countries could offset the pain of austerity through structural reforms; the periphery, however, is another matter
Economics Nobel goes to CBP board member Robert Shiller
Central Banking Publications advisory board member honored for work predicting long-term price trends; Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen share the prize
Trust in financial sector shapes long-term consumption patterns
General economic indicators, ‘animal spirits', and trust all explain ‘consumer sentiment crisis' stoked by the Great Recession, according to DNB working paper
Thai governor says the fate of emerging markets rests on institutional progress
Prasarn Trairatvorakul says the destinies of emerging markets are "not strictly bound to each other" and will depend on the quality of institutions in each individual country
IMF’s Blanchard flags ‘yet another transition’ as emerging markets struggle
IMF chief economist admits emerging market economies have performed worse than expected; calls for central banks to focus on credibility and dismisses US default as a ‘tail risk’ event
Close elections kryptonite for foreign investors, Fed research finds
The timing of national elections causes FDI flows from US firms to affiliates in more than 40 countries to drop by an average of 12% compared to non-election years, according to Fed research paper
Lagarde says US has ‘special responsibilty' to unwind QE responsibly
IMF director says failure to raise US debt ceiling could seriously damage the global economy; warns emerging markets will have to adjust to new economic reality for remainder of the decade
Falling asset prices 'significantly associated' with onset of G-7 recessions
IMF working paper examining the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries finds equity price drops are larger and more frequent than house price drops
Macklem says Canadian exporters must look to new markets
Slowing domestic demand must be replaced with demand from other countries, says Bank of Canada deputy; faster-growing emerging markets will hold the key, he says
Eurozone inflation and output do move in step, says IMF working paper
Researchers argue co-movement of inflation and output is observable in the eurozone at ‘business cycle frequencies', confirming New Keynesian models to demand shocks
Draghi highlights win-win productivity gains in Berlin speech
While cost adjustments increase competitiveness only relatively, productivity gains, by increasing trend growth, can be absolute and benefit all countries, ECB president tells conference audience
Reserve Bank of Fiji adviser targets 5% growth
Lorraine Seeto believes the Fijian economy can grow by 5% each year; highlights the need for more investment, more exports, and a low and stable inflation rate
Bank of Finland publishes research overview
Newsletter highlights research on bank-sovereign feedback loops, information costs and their effect on investment and financial liberalisation in China
Temptation preferences can inform asset pricing, Fed researchers find
According to San Francisco Fed paper, self-control preferences have important implications for macroeconomic issues, such as social security reform, income tax reform and asset-pricing issues
Financial crisis caused significant shift in the euro area Beveridge curve
ECB paper finds that labour market consequences of the crisis have been heterogeneous across countries, with Spain and Germany diverging the most
BIS papers study effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks
Researchers find fiscal shocks within the eurozone lead to a real exchange rate appreciation through inflation differential; monetary policy shocks have minor impact on commodity prices
Irish households exhibit ‘relatively large' wealth effect from housing
Housing wealth effect particularly strong for Irish households in negative equity, central bank researchers find