Commentary
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Unemployment forecast by minority of emerging market economy nations
Data highlights differences based on local economic circumstances
One in five central bank economists have a PhD
Central banks in Africa lag behind peers in sponsoring PhD programmes
Covid-19 causes bigger growth forecast errors
But central banks perform better at forecasting inflation
Economist salaries outpace GDP per capita
Salaries were six times higher than GDP per capita, on average
Policy economists outnumber research economists
Central banks with their own pure research departments tend to employ more policy economists
Nearly 40% of central banks have financial sector in main forecast model
Semi-structural models remain favoured option for producing key forecasts
Economists tend to perform both policy and research duties
Only around a quarter of economics departments have a pure research function
Most currency departments operated remote working models during pandemic
Many central banks employed a split team structure to ensure critical functions were maintained
Advanced economies more likely to outsource counterfeit detection
Emerging market economies more likely to outsource distribution
Central bank currency department costs on the rise
Majority of central banks’ budgets have also increased over the past five years
Higher-denomination banknotes have longer lifespans
Median correlation was 0.9 across 22 central banks
Banknote demand forecast to rise in 2022
Median forecast percentage change was 7.6%, but ranged from -59% to 17%
Half of central banks quarantined banknotes during the pandemic
But only 37% ran a study relating to Covid-19 and banknotes
Banknote forecasting with big data tools on the rise
Three-quarters of central bank currency departments yet to use big data
Emerging economies more likely to employ access-to-cash policies
Central banks split on access-to-cash policies
Raised ink main banknote feature for visually impaired
Different banknote sizes used by over 70% of respondents
Three in 10 currency departments have a climate strategy
Around half of central banks recycle banknotes but few measure their carbon footprint
Transactional cash usage ebbs and flows in response to Covid-19
The proportion of payments made in cash ranged from 3% to 88%
Currency managers fighting counterfeits with new security features
Availability of sophisticated printers see counterfeits continue to rise
Central banks sign up to Fed’s Fima facility
Reported usage is marginal, but backstop is highly valued by reserve managers
Custodian use in upper-middle income economies declines
Unstable jurisdictions, such as Afghanistan or Venezuela, face risk of losing access to assets held abroad
Bespoke indexes often used with derivatives and securities
Central banks using bespoke indexes are more likely to lend securities
Europe leads on gold lending and swaps
Just over 20% of central banks engage in these operations