Macroeconomics
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
RBI’s Das: pandemic improved India’s external balance
Boom in software business helped shore up current account and boost RBI reserves, governor says
BIS paper contrasts firm financing in US and Asia
Authors argue market segmentation drives different patterns of bond and loan financing
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Kenya strikes deal on $2.4 billion IMF package
“Multi-year effort” required to stabilise public finances and boost growth
Virus impacts consumer credit more than restrictions – Fed paper
“Pandemic itself” was main driver of credit contraction in US, not lockdowns, paper finds
Shadow banks play key role in business cycle – BoE paper
Contraction in securitisation can spill into wider credit conditions, researchers say
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper
Cleveland Fed research says two decades of growth would produce 3.6% unemployment
Latin American economies threatened by pandemic resurgence – IMF
Western hemisphere chief warns recovery is uneven and under threat
IMF grants Tonga $10 million emergency loan
Fund’s Article IV report expresses concern about banking sector; predicts GDP contraction
Reserve Bank of Australia launches A$100bn in new QE
Australian central bank surprises analysts with easing measure, despite more hopeful macroeconomic forecast
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
IMF staff lay ground for $1.8 billion loan to Costa Rica
Staff set terms for three-year loan as high debt and Covid-19 take toll; earlier agreement foundered amid public protests
IMF warns of ‘exceptional uncertainty’ in vaccine-driven recovery
Fund upgrades global forecasts amid early success of vaccine rollout
Research finds productivity impact from monetary policy
Paper sets out model of supply-side transmission channel, which can lead to flatter Phillips curve
Design flaws in Covid relief package cost millions of jobs – Fed paper
Delay to paycheck protection programme had “very substantial” impact, economists argue
Bank of Lithuania paper explores spillovers of US policy uncertainty
Authors find “significant recessionary and deflationary effect” and synchronous response worldwide
Terms of trade shocks not symmetric – BoE paper
Developing countries particularly vulnerable to export shocks, study finds
Fed’s Clarida says vaccine rollout has ‘brightened’ 2021 economic outlook
Rising Covid cases are downside in near term, but economy should bounce back, says vice-chair
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Covid-19 likely harms productivity – BoE paper
Private sector could lose 5% of its productivity in Q4 this year, authors estimate