Central Banks
NBIM’s Q2 returns hit by Brexit turbulence
Second-quarter returns of 1.3% held back by European equities and UK in particular; real estate investments register second negative quarter
Goldfajn faces independence test
Ilan Goldfajn has abundant technical skills required to run Brazil's central bank. But he could face similar political pressures as his predecessor at a troubled time for the Brazilian economy.
Paper outlines methods for creating country-specific banking crisis prediction models
Working paper tests models with country-specific and state-dependent parameters on a sample of 14 European countries; approach out-performs traditional early-warning models, researchers argue
Low inflation and tighter credit gave room for cut, RBA minutes show
Inflation looks likely to remain low for some time, board members note, while tighter lending standards make adverse effects of a cut less likely
Tajikistan objects to Basel Institute’s anti-money-laundering criticisms
The Basel Institute’s grading of Tajikistan as the third-worst money laundering jurisdiction in the world is based on an “absolutely incorrect analysis”, the country’s central bank says
UK inflation climbs in first post-Brexit data
Prices rose 0.6% in the year to July, the highest inflation number for nearly two years, with signs the effect of the UK’s Brexit vote may be starting to feed through
San Francisco Fed chief calls for policy target re-think
John Williams calls for central banks to consider raising their inflation targets or replacing them with nominal GDP targets; lower natural interest rates seem “poised to stay”, he argues
Philippines leads improvement in Brookings financial inclusion rankings
The Central Bank of the Philippines says rapid progress last year reflects the success of its financial inclusion strategy; Brookings report highlights the importance of a wide-ranging approach
Solomon Islands’ Rarawa praises ‘innovative’ financial inclusion plans
Financing initiative for coconut industry promises to extend “digital banking penetration” in the Pacific nation, governor says
Basel reports target gaps in CCP resolution framework
Reports by CPMI-Iosco and FSB find there are still gaps in CCPs’ implementation of recovery and risk management principles and regulators need to think more about resolution planning
BoE paper finds fault with empirical methods for studying contagion
Review of spillover and contagion literature finds methods plagued by bias and heteroskedasticity, concluding no single technique is flawless, but some offer a partial solution
Okun’s law is empirically robust but presents modelling problems, researchers say
Economists need to find more sophisticated methods to model the relationship between financial and labour markets, say the authors of an occasional paper published by the ECB
Credit contractions are significant cause of unemployment, researcher says
Data from 20 OECD countries shows that contractions in credit affect total, youth and long-term unemployment measures, a working paper from the Bank of Austria argues
Unconventional monetary policy does not rob the poor, Italian researchers argue
Studying the effects of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme on the wealth and incomes of 8,000 Italian households shows that the policies benefit the poorest, Bank of Italy paper argues
China to create own version of FX code
A newly established Chinese FX Committee is working on creating a Chinese version of the Global Code of Conduct, for domestic and foreign banks operating in the onshore market
Islamic finance becoming ‘mainstream’ in Malaysia – BNM’s Ibrahim
Governor says Islamic finance has gone from a handful of firms to a quarter of the market in a matter of years; “pragmatic” approach may be part of success
PBoC gives World Bank green light as China’s first SDR bond issuer
World Bank to issue China’s first bond denominated in special drawing rights, in “landmark” step towards opening up Chinese bond market
People: BNM picks new assistant governor; Charlie Bean nominated to OBR post
Markets specialist takes over assistant governor role at Malaysian central bank; former BoE deputy to sit on budget oversight committee; new head of monetary policy research in Israel; and more
Climbing ‘Mount Economy’
The BIS’s quest for financial stability-oriented monetary policy throws up questions not only about decision-making but also how one should think about economics, as Claudio Borio explains
Danish research examines how central banks can impact market liquidity
Price of liquidity tends to change on days when central bank is operating in markets, with aggregate liquidity and payments activity also important, PhD thesis finds
BoE research finds support for Phillips curve in micro data
Authors turn to direct measures of firms’ expectations and employ new instrumental variables in search of empirical support for the Phillips curve
Blanchard sees reformed DSGE as ‘central’ to future of macroeconomics
Former IMF chief economist says DSGE models are “seriously flawed” but “eminently improvable”, and will have a leading role to play in the future
Asset prices can signal abnormal inflation rates, paper argues
Asset prices can provide warning of forthcoming high or low inflation, a Netherlands Bank working paper says, but transmission times can be “quite long”
EBA suggests anti-money laundering measures for virtual currencies
Major new legislation or amendments needed to regulate payments in virtual currency, EBA says; suggests changes to proposed extension of regulation and calls for deadline for implementation