Monetary Policy
Deputy governor warns of perils in changing Sweden’s inflation target
Sweden would only be able to raise its inflation rate successfully if other major economies around the world did also, deputy governor Ohlsson says – competiveness would disappear
Sarb hikes rate despite split decision on MPC
Monetary policy committee decides to raise key rate by 25bp after an initial 3:3 split; concerns over inflation remain for some members
BoE alert to second-round effects from low inflation, minutes show
BoE enters eighth year with rate at 0.5%; committee will continue to watch for second-round effects of inflation on wages
Norges Bank willing to consider move into negative territory
Central bank cuts rates to 0.5% and signals further action likely to follow; executive board concerned by side-effects of negative rates, but willing to use them if necessary
Fed officials lower expectations of rate increases
Fed officials forecast rate increase of 50bp this year, compared with 100bp in December; Yellen “wary” of recent increase in headline inflation
Bank capital matters for risk-taking channel of monetary policy, Norges Bank paper finds
Less capitalised Norwegian banks are more likely to extend credit to risky firms in response to a cut in the policy rate, author finds
Romanian government policies may put financial stability at risk, IMF and EC staff say
European Commission and IMF staff raise concerns over some measures, including draft laws on loans and debt clearance; IMF staff suggest the central bank adopts a “tightening bias”
BoJ spells out operational details for negative rates
Policy board will review exemptions from negative interest rate every three months; banks given new incentive to borrow from the central bank under its targeted programmes
Research sheds light on RBNZ concerns over inflation expectations
Article authored by, among others, John McDermott argues the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor has increased; concerns were a ‘primary motive’ for last week’s rate cut
Rajan offers solution to global policy spillovers
RBI governor sketches rating system designed to hold central banks to account; frank discussion may be enough, he says, but tougher rules in the style of Bretton Woods are also an option
‘Compositional’ drag on wages set to fade, BoE article finds
Labour force composition has changed markedly in recent years, putting downward pressure on wages, but recent data implies the effect may soon dissipate, researchers say
TLTRO II may reflect renewed ECB focus on transmission, analysts say
The European Central Bank’s decision to operate a second targeted long-term refinancing operation would help provide banks with ‘stability’, according to Draghi
Inflation target and interest rates about right, UK survey suggest
Median expectations of inflation for 2016 were 1.8%; largest share of UK public says it is best for the economy if interest rates stay where they are
ECB launches ‘comprehensive package’ as inflation outlook worsens
Mario Draghi announces cuts in interest rates and an expansion to the ECB’s asset-purchase programme, as well as a second TLTRO package, larger than the original
Central Bank of Brazil calls for structural reforms
Inflation figures come down, but still nowhere near target range; central bank calls on government to ensure fiscal consolidation in longer-term
RBNZ tweaks forecasting models and cuts key rate
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25bp to 2.25% in attempt to prevent inflation expectations from falling further; updates models in wake of optimistic forecasts
Paper finds evidence in favour of ‘exchange-rate-anchored inflation targeting’
A working paper published by the IMF finds ‘tight management’ of the exchange rate can help support inflation targeting in ‘less developed countries’
BIS paper: short-term interest rate may no longer be enough to set policy
Globalised debt markets, the falling long-term interest rate and dollar debt accumulation has altered every major aspect of the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging markets, authors say
IMF welcomes Indian inflation progress, but RBI should ‘stand ready’
IMF welcomes progress made with inflation targeting in India; calls for “growth-friendly” fiscal consolidation to support monetary policy
Turkey’s Kenç sheds light on central bank ‘roadmap’
Deputy governor tells Central Banking conference that a 'roadmap' of policy changes helps improve confidence in the economy; says the central bank has gained market trust despite independence fears
US monetary policy contraction means drop in global output – paper
Raising interest rates in the US leads to lower global output and inflation in the short term; most 'pronounced' responses evident in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s
BoJ’s Nakaso insists deposit rates are not going negative
Deputy says a 'wide range' of interest rates will fall due to the BoJ’s negative rate policy, but experience in Europe implies depositors will not suffer
Turkish MPC eyes volatility as it prepares move to standardised framework
Decline in volatility will be key factor in move to a narrower interest rate corridor, minutes say; central bank expects disinflation in February after headline figure hit 9.6% in January
Economists mull how to improve Fed communications
Paper presented at US Monetary Policy Forum encourages Fed to move away from ‘time-based’ forward guidance; considers what kind of new information would be useful to markets