Firm-level data can improve business cycle forecasting: ECB paper

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A European Central Bank paper, published on Monday, finds evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations.

Filippo di Mauro, Fabio Fornari and Dario Mannucci, the paper's authors, analyse in more detail the implications of Gabaix's theory of real business cycles by taking an international and micro perspective.

Whereas existing studies have so far typically used aggregate-level data rather than firm

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