Monetary Policy
Cleveland Fed’s Mester sees guidance as 'comms device'
Loretta Mester believes the Fed should stop using forward guidance as a policy tool when economic conditions have normalised and stick to setting out its reaction function
ECB closely watching impact of QE on financial stability
Mario Draghi tells Econ committee the central bank is aware of the potential for QE to inflate asset prices and invite excessive risk taking, but risks are ‘contained’ at present
Central banks told to handle financial inclusion with care
Greater inclusion benefits the poor but could damage monetary policy or financial stability if it is not kept under control, BIS research and IMF officials warn
Kuroda says QQE bringing ‘landmark’ changes to Japan
BoJ governor sets out evidence that extraordinary monetary easing is bearing fruit, with inflation expectations rising and workers demanding higher wages
ECB forecasts ‘gradual’ increase in US inflation
Economic bulletin published by ECB agrees with FOMC that inflation will increase gradually as labour market conditions improve and impact of low oil prices and high dollar fades
Stevens says RBA has discussed further easing
Australian governor says central bank is trying to manage difficult mix of low inflation and rising asset prices against longer-term backdrop of falling terms of trade
Haldane warns expectations could drag down wages
Lower inflation expectations putting downward pressure on wages, and could contribute to greater persistence of low or falling inflation, BoE chief economist says
Third TLTRO sees extra €98 billion borrowed from ECB
Latest allocation of cheap loans pushes total amount borrowed to €310 billion; measures aimed at repairing transmission mechanism and encouraging loans to real economy
Fed keeps options open as countdown to lift-off begins
FOMC drops the reference to being ‘patient’ before normalising policy, signalling a rate hike could arrive as early as June, but tempers expectations with more cautious economic assessment
SNB balance sheet could not have coped with peg defence, says Jordan
Chairman says decision to abandon Swiss franc ceiling avoided huge losses and monetary policy impairment; central bank slashes inflation forecast but does not follow Riksbank’s rate cut
BoE minutes highlight risks from sterling strength
MPC members raise concerns over divergence of monetary policy and the resulting strength of the UK’s currency, which has the potential to hold inflation lower for longer
Denmark eases pressure on banks but stays tough on krone peg
National Bank of Denmark raises limits on current account deposits to ease pressure on banks after forex interventions, but stresses speculators will lose if they continue to attack the krone peg
IMF paper warns against ‘overburdening’ LatAm central banks
Working paper studies evolution of central banks in Latin America, and warns against jeopardising the credibility they currently enjoy by handing them new mandates
Finnish paper charts evolution of PBoC policy since 1999
Discussion paper asks whether China has shifted toward a ‘price-based policy’ and finds the PBoC has become more responsive to changes in economic conditions in recent years
Lagarde tells emerging markets to prepare for US rate hike
Emerging markets can expect trouble if the Fed raises rates this year, says IMF managing director; BIS research implies economies can harness the benefits of spillovers with the right policy mix
BoJ sees inflation remaining at 0% for 'the time being'
Central bank to fall short of 2% inflation target in April as consumer prices stagnate on back of lower oil prices; more easing unlikely, says analyst
BoJ’s easing boosts inequality, warns IMF paper
Working paper finds attempts to meet Japan’s 2% inflation target are increasing income growth and inequality; calls for structural reform to make this growth more inclusive
Finnish paper: DSGE model with shadow banks sheds light on China
Bank of Finland discussion paper models Chinese monetary policy transmission using a DSGE model augmented with shadow banking and interest rate controls
IMF paper sees lower inflation boosting Indian savings
Working paper says a ‘sustained reduction in inflation’ would help create interest rate environment necessary to boost corporate profitability and encourage household savings
Central Bank of Brazil sees inflation gathering pace
Progress made in the fight against inflation is not yet ‘sufficient’, according to minutes from monetary policy committee meeting last week
Carney confident of returning inflation to target in two years
BoE governor sees risk that global low inflation and strength of UK currency could weigh on prices for ‘some time’, but is confident the central bank is ‘on track’ for 2% inflation
Won at 20-month low following record BoK rate cut
Korean central bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 1.75%, an all-time low, amid slowing growth and inflation; euro weakness 'a consideration' posits analyst
ECB paper models Philips curve from professional forecasts
Working paper finds the curve consistent with professional forecasts has flattened since the financial crisis, with the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakening
McCafferty: BoE is right to look through oil price decline
The sharp fall of oil prices will have a temporary impact on inflation, since ‘supply rather than demand has been the dominant factor’, says McCafferty