Monetary Policy
Fed policy has ‘little impact’ on labour market, paper says
Paper published by Minneapolis Fed argues there is little the Fed can do to restore the level of employment relative to the population that prevailed before the crisis
Norges Bank unlikely to follow others into negative territory, says Olsen
Governor flags the dangers and distortions from very low rates, but says Norway has more room to manoeuvre than most; contrasts ECB and Riksbank liquidity policies
Romania euro entry ‘no longer feasible’ for 2019, central bank governor says
National Bank of Romania governor says it is ‘no longer technically possible’ to join the single currency by January 2019; had previously warned of need for structural reforms
Carney sees ‘clear interest’ in preparing for transition to lower-carbon economy
While central bankers will not determine response to climate change, they should ensure markets adjust efficiently, according to Carney, which means boosting transparency
Colombia concerned by loosening inflation expectations
Unexpected increase in inflation spurs Colombian central bank into action, as it raises key rate by 25 basis points; observers divided over importance of growth risks
Global factors harming domestic policy transmission in Asia, IMF research finds
Authors find global factors help to explain why bank funding in Asian economies has such a limited role in transmitting monetary policy
Chicago Fed president wants more evidence of inflation
Evans backs an ‘extra-patient approach’ to monetary policy as he airs concerns over inflation outlook and ‘asymmetric’ risks; assesses economy more cautiously than FOMC colleagues
Reserve Bank of India ‘front-loads’ easing with 50bp cut
Rajan points to deterioration in global outlook and desire to boost investment; RBI will now focus on improving the transmission of cumulative 125bp reduction in key rate
Kuroda unfazed by ‘somewhat stagnant developments’
Japan’s economy has been through a summer lull but the BoJ chief insists it will bounce back, with inflation set to rise as expectations shift and low oil prices pass through
‘Little support’ from data for theories of disconnect between trade and exchange rates, IMF report says
Data largely supports conventional economic wisdom linking movements in trade flows with levels of exchange rates, according to WEO chapter; Japan may be an exception
Charlie Bean expects natural rate to change course
Former BoE deputy believes evidence points to a gradual rise in the natural rate of interest; suggests government is better placed than central bank to solve zero lower bound problem
Taiwan cut seen as start of easing cycle
Prompted by negative inflation and stalling growth amid China slowdown, the central bank cuts rates for first time since 2011
Norway signals further easing as it cuts again
Norwegian central bank looks to cut rates further with inflation set to fall back to 2% over the forecast horizon
Micro-data matters for unemployment, says BoE’s Broadbent
Deputy governor becomes latest economist to stress importance of micro data for macro policy, warning overreliance on ‘simple aggregates’ may lead central bankers astray
Bundesbank board member wary of flexibility in fiscal rules
Carl-Ludwig Thiele calls for more "balance" between liability and control in the eurozone, stressing the importance of enforcing fiscal rules
Draghi: too early to judge impact of global events on eurozone inflation
Mario Draghi says slowing growth in EMs, strong euro and weak commodity prices have ‘renewed downside risks’ to outlook; Peter Praet says eurozone still ‘going through correction phase’
Belgian and French central banks get larger role buying asset-backed securities
The ECB makes the National Bank of Belgium the second central bank authorised to buy bonds under its asset-backed securities purchase programme; Banque de France role expanded
Belgian paper explores link between monetary policy and risk-taking
Model suggests central banks should stabilise the path of the real interest rate more when there is a ‘risk-taking channel’ of monetary policy, to help reduce ‘welfare detrimental fluctuations’
Riksbank paper takes stock of macro-prudential landscape
A survey of the empirical literature on macro-prudential policy says various tools work best in different contexts; more research is needed on combining macro-prudential and monetary policy
Poloz expects Canada to manage adjustment well
Bank of Canada governor says the floating exchange rate will help the country to adjust to the resource price shock, while reducing the disinflationary risks that come with it
Limited case for leaning against the wind, says IMF report
Staff conclude the short-term costs of using higher interest rates to address financial risks exceed the longer-term benefits in most cases, but stress door should ‘remain open’
Fed presidents talk up prospect of 2015 hike
Richmond, St Louis and San Francisco reserve bank presidents offer thoughts in wake of last week’s decision to hold rates; all suggest a hike in October or December will likely be appropriate
Haldane weighs solutions to ZLB constraint
Andrew Haldane considers benefits and costs of adopting higher inflation targets, accepting QE as a conventional policy tool and creating central bank-issued digital currencies
Riksbank research suggests inflation correlated with policy rate in some cases
Research by two Swedish economists uses the work of Irving Fisher to illustrate how low policy rates might be leading to low inflation in some countries; cites Irving Fisher for causal explanation