Monetary Policy
Capital controls essential for small open economies, Guðmundsson says
Small open economies cannot conduct fully independent monetary policy if they are unwilling to use capital controls at least some of the time, Icelandic governor says
RBNZ holds but hints at future easing as outlook worsens
New Zealand dollar reaches four-month low as Reserve Bank of New Zealand hints at prolonged inflation battle
State Bank of Pakistan reveals first MPC members
Formation of monetary policy committee is part of a broader drive towards independence and inflation targeting; one seat remains unfilled
Turkish inflation seen returning to 5% in 2018
Latest projections from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey suggest headline inflation will only return to target in 2018, after it overshot October forecasts, rising to 8.8%
Kosovo’s ELA rules are ‘major improvement’, say IMF staff
Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo adopts regulation setting out the conditions for emergency fund provision; staff at IMF welcome the additional ‘detail and rigour’
Policy interactions may drive global banking contraction, BoE economists find
The combination of unconventional monetary policy and regulation may cause ‘substantial’ spillovers as banks cut cross-border lending, economists including Kristin Forbes find
Kuroda and Davos panel see little alternative to divergence
Bank of Japan governor warns a synchronised exit from easy policy in the major economies ‘could be worse’ than the ’staggered arrangement’ at present
BoE’s Weale sees shorter working week adding to inflation
Various measures suggest UK workers will gradually cut back on the number of hours they work over the next few years, adding to unit labour costs, external MPC member says
IMF staff back Moldovan central bank response to crisis
Staff report supports many actions taken by the Moldovan central bank in dealing with the crisis caused by banking fraud; calls for bank to gain more powers and independence
ECB will 'review and possibly reconsider’ stance in March
ECB policy rates and asset-purchase programme remain unchanged, but Draghi says council was ‘unanimous’ in agreeing it should announce March review
Economists point to external woes as Central Bank of Brazil holds rates
Monetary policy committee leaves interest rate at 14.25% in surprise move; politics and fiscal policy making life harder for central bank, analysts suggest
Monetary policy less effective than structural reform, Davos panellists argue
Structural reform is more effective than monetary or fiscal policy in current conditions, Axel Weber and Raghuram Rajan agree; Weber foresees four Fed rate rises but thinks markets disagree
BoJ regional research divisions see ‘moderate’ recovery
Nine regions report the economy has ‘continued to grow’, often at a ‘moderate’ pace, in the past three months; some note impact from emerging markets slowdown on exports and production
Independent review calls for major changes at Riksbank
Riksbank criticised for reliance on models, board members’ quarrels and ‘surreal’ monetary guidance, though King and Goodfriend say it is ‘clearly a success’ compared with past regimes
Carney says UK rate hike still some way off
Continued weakness in key indicators begins to puzzle policy-makers as Carney suggests there is room for the MPC to wait longer; CPI and core inflation on the rise
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
Bank of England's Vlieghe wants more nuanced approach to monetary policy
Bank of England policy-maker says high levels of debt, ageing population and distribution of income combine to make him ‘patient' about rate hike; questions modelling based on representative agents
Bank of Italy outlines downside risks as inflation falls
Annual HICP inflation fell to 0.1% according to December estimate, just below eurozone average; Bank of Italy warns that international situation poses ‘significant risks’ to European recovery
Central banks struggling to exit ‘confused period’, economists say
The financial crisis forced a regime change on central banks, raising challenges to independence, analysis and policy tools, which have yet to be fully resolved, say panellists in Brussels
New York Fed president keeping eye on expectations
William Dudley expects inflation expectations to increase if the economy keeps growing at an above-trend pace, but any deviation could be cause for concern
Zeti warns of ‘immense' challenges in 2016
Bank Negara Malaysia governor warns of potentially persistent threats to long-term growth at the AFF conference in Hong Kong, but sees a silver lining if policy-makers get it right
Polish governor says inflation will rise slower than expected
Inflation will not turn positive in January 2016 as previously expected, governor Marek Belka says; monetary policy council keeps policy rate unchanged
BoJ paper: inflation expectations do not match target
Study of ‘dissonance’ in forecasts between economic agents and the central bank finds people only believe the BoJ will hit its target in the short to medium term – after that, inflation drops
Volatility fails to shake outlook as BoE holds rates steady
Latest MPC minutes are largely preoccupied with discussion of international developments, but falling oil prices and market volatility do not herald major change in stance