Interest rates
Minneapolis Fed essay suggests new focus for FOMC comms
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues the FOMC should talk more about what it is trying to accomplish with its monetary policy; Minneapolis Fed staff rewrite January statement to illustrate point
RBA’s Lowe wary of structural adjustment in global interest rates
Australian deputy governor expects rates on offer to savers to pick up when confidence grows and businesses compete for funds again, but sees potential for structural shift as well
Mexican deputy cautious of data-dependent Fed policy
Manuel Sánchez sees potential for smooth tightening if markets are able to price in rate changes, but remains alert to risk Fed is pushed into acting faster than planned
Evans: Fed must keep rates low to protect target symmetry
Chicago Fed president sees no serious costs with ‘modestly overshooting’ 2%, but is concerned about potential damage to inflation expectations of tightening too soon
BoE unearths new evidence on UK productivity puzzle
Latest inflation report includes new research suggesting temporary ‘compositional’ factors may be dragging on productivity growth; inflation path revised up slightly and growth down
San Fran Fed president sees light at end of tunnel
John Williams says when short-term volatility is discounted, the US economy is nearing full employment, with an inflation trend running around 1.5%
Riksbank minutes reveal instability fears
Board members were unanimously in favour of further easing but ‘several’ voiced concerns about financial stability risks resulting from the expansionary policy
NY Fed’s McAndrews warns negative rates could drag inflation down
Director of research highlights some of the more radical unintended consequences that could stem from negative rates, including new forms of currency and inflation moving in unexpected directions
Chicago Fed research charts fall in natural rate of unemployment
Group of economists say an ageing population and rising education attainment could push the natural rate – currently at or below 5% – as low as 4.5% by 2020
Serbia cuts rate amid IMF call for action on debt overhang
National Bank of Serbia cuts rate for third straight month, as IMF warns dangers may lurk beneath robust overall debt position
PBoC cuts interest rates for third time since November
Central bank also lifts cap on deposit rates; moves will do little to stimulate growth amid property glut, analysts predict
Romania slashes inflation forecast with VAT cut on horizon
Latest forecast has inflation falling to 0.2% at the end of the year, before rising to 1.9% a year later; Central bank cut key rate by 25bp earlier this week
Yellen says stability risks ‘not elevated’
Fed chair tells Christine Lagarde she does not see ‘the precursors of a financial crisis’, but singles out high stock valuations as a ‘potential danger’
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
Lift-off for ASX Aussie dollar swap clearing business
Volumes jump in the first three months of the year following revamp of Sydney bourse's clearing incentive scheme
Deeper markets in WAEMU could boost policy transmission
Research published by the IMF finds the transmission of monetary policy is impeded by ‘shallow’ financial markets in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Gieve: BoE rate hike likely to hinge on election outcome
Former deputy governor John Gieve says victor in May 7 poll will impact BoE’s tightening decision; panellists warn of high uncertainty as no party likely to win outright majority
Australian dollar jumps despite RBA rate cut
Australian central bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 2%; governor Stevens says currency depreciation 'necessary' amid falling terms of trade
BIS economists say investor behaviour key to understanding EM challenges
Hyun Song Shin and Philip Turner consider implications of shift in financial intermediation for emerging markets; part of wider Banque de France review on the subject
Carstens expects Mexican inflation to end year at 3% target
Bank of Mexico governor expects inflation to end the year at 3% target, but does not rule out an interest rate increase if prices start to rise due to a weaker peso
BoE minutes remind markets not to be complacent
Minutes show MPC firmly positioned for coming rate hike; economists suggest central bank may be warning markets they have overestimated willingness for easing
Mexican deputy tells EMs to assume US rate hike coming ‘sooner rather than later’
Javier Guzmán Calafell advises emerging markets to prepare ‘as fast as possible for a worst-case scenario’ in anticipation of the Federal Reserve tightening policy later this year
Carstens-led IMFC urges policy-makers ‘to attenuate’ spillovers and spillbacks
Fund calls for ‘careful calibration’ of policy normalisation; endorses use of capital controls as a last resort
Fed presidents still divided on timing of rate hike
Heads of the Federal Reserve Banks in Atlanta, Boston and Cleveland offer different takes on current economic conditions; all united in desire for more data