Inflation
Micro-data matters for unemployment, says BoE’s Broadbent
Deputy governor becomes latest economist to stress importance of micro data for macro policy, warning overreliance on ‘simple aggregates’ may lead central bankers astray
Draghi: too early to judge impact of global events on eurozone inflation
Mario Draghi says slowing growth in EMs, strong euro and weak commodity prices have ‘renewed downside risks’ to outlook; Peter Praet says eurozone still ‘going through correction phase’
Poloz expects Canada to manage adjustment well
Bank of Canada governor says the floating exchange rate will help the country to adjust to the resource price shock, while reducing the disinflationary risks that come with it
Limited case for leaning against the wind, says IMF report
Staff conclude the short-term costs of using higher interest rates to address financial risks exceed the longer-term benefits in most cases, but stress door should ‘remain open’
Fed presidents talk up prospect of 2015 hike
Richmond, St Louis and San Francisco reserve bank presidents offer thoughts in wake of last week’s decision to hold rates; all suggest a hike in October or December will likely be appropriate
Haldane weighs solutions to ZLB constraint
Andrew Haldane considers benefits and costs of adopting higher inflation targets, accepting QE as a conventional policy tool and creating central bank-issued digital currencies
Fed holds off rate increase but outlook largely unchanged
The majority of Fed governors and presidents still expect a hike this year, but concerns over global outlook and domestic inflation prompt FOMC to hold fire for now
Russian governor weighs exchange rate pass-through
Elvira Nabiullina discusses the bank of Russia’s estimates for how much the depreciation of the ruble will impact inflation, conceding prices have increased faster than expected
BoE’s Forbes calls for rethink of exchange rate pass-through
MPC member outlines new, more nuanced approach to measuring the exchange rate’s impact on inflation, noting this implies rates could need to be tightened sooner than older models suggest
Gaza blockade adds to leap in Palestinian inflation
Low oil prices are not fully offsetting a fuel crisis in the Gaza Strip as a continued blockade causes rapid price rises in certain goods, a Palestine Monetary Authority inflation report finds
RBNZ cuts OCR again in face of ‘softening’
Graeme Wheeler reiterates ‘some further easing in the OCR seems likely’ as he reveals the third consecutive rate cut; RBNZ notes importance of Chinese demand to commodity prices
Bank of England wary of China risks but UK outlook steady
The MPC’s view is not materially affected by recent volatility in the financial markets as it keeps policy on hold; domestically, an increase in wage growth is offset by higher productivity
Israel committee see risks to inflation outlook rising
Policy-makers at Bank of Israel discussed decline in short-term inflation expectations, a potential drop in growth and the strength of the shekel in August meeting
Riksbank is working on ‘big data’, says Skingsley
Deputy governor speaks to Central Banking about bringing together experts on big data, the possibility of leaning against the wind, risks in the housing market and more
US unemployment falls to 5.1% despite drop in jobs growth
Richmond Fed president describes it as a ‘right-down-the-middle-of-the-fairway’ unemployment report, as he spells out why the time is right to begin raising interest rates
Draghi stresses willingness to act as ECB cuts inflation forecasts
Governing council holds policy as ECB staff cut inflation forecasts over the forecast horizon; Mario Draghi stresses QE could run beyond September 2016 if necessary
BoJ’s Kiuchi warns 2% inflation unlikely ‘even in fiscal 2017’
Policy board member says Japanese inflation is unlikely to reach the central bank’s 2% target by the end of fiscal year 2017
Boston Fed president compares forthcoming rate hikes with past tightening cycles
Eric Rosengren finds this tightening cycle is likely to differ from those of 1994 and 2004, in that rates are set to rise more gradually and stop at a lower level
IMF urges central banks to retain easy monetary policy
Ahead of the G20 meeting in Turkey the IMF prepares a briefing on policy challenges; tells central banks to prevent real interest rates from ‘rising prematurely’
Carney says BoE can stay independent in face of globalisation
BoE governor says global factors ‘influence but do not dictate’ policy in speech at Jackson Hole; other economists argue central banks should do more to set policy with global dynamics in mind
Fischer upbeat on US inflation outlook at Jackson Hole
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says there is ‘good reason’ to believe inflation will move higher as impact of rise in dollar and fall in oil prices dissipates
Case for higher inflation targets takes a knock at Jackson Hole
Thomas Jordan warns higher inflation ‘likely to be associated with considerable costs’ in longer run; academics see little benefit in the Federal Reserve targeting 4%
EAC officials highlight exchange rate pass-through concerns
Both central banks wary of potential for domestic inflation to increase in face of depreciating currencies; concerns over impact of external environment raised in EAC member statement
Indian central bank targets stronger rate transmission
Reserve Bank of India sees improvements in transmission of policy to money markets, but looks to strengthen credit channel as it transitions to inflation targeting framework