Inflation
Further rate hikes likely as Chile raises 25bp
Central bank lifts rate to 3.25% in first move in four years; analysts suggest the move is an effort to rein in expectations
RBI economists attempt to pin down India’s natural rate
Researchers lend support to monetary policy by estimating natural interest rate; results imply the policy rate is now set more appropriately for tackling inflation
MAS eases policy in first move since January
Singapore's central bank cuts rate at which currency is allowed to strengthen amid Asia slowdown; keeps width and centre of policy band unchanged
RBNZ governor reiterates further easing ‘seems likely’
Graeme Wheeler says the central bank is ‘conscious’ of the impact low rates can have on housing demand; RBNZ has cut OCR by 75bp since June
Eurozone policy-makers and researchers puzzled by trends in long-term inflation expectations
Eurozone inflation more strongly influenced by inflation expectations, the ECB notes; two central bank working papers say data shows unexpected changes
BoE’s new MPC member grilled on financial assets
Treasury Committee questions Gertjan Vlieghe on real or perceived conflict of interest; Ian McCafferty justifies view on rate hike in reappointment hearing
Macro-prudential tools can influence inflation, Menon says
MAS managing director outlines interaction of prudential tools and monetary policy, saying Singapore deliberately used macro-prudential tools to help lower inflation
Fed’s Brainard counsels patience on interest rates
Governor Lael Brainard warns there could be ‘some distance to go’ before reaching full employment in the US, and questions the impact of further labour market improvements on inflation
Swedish economists add voices to criticism of leaning against the wind
Current and former Riksbank deputy governors Martin Flodén and Lars Svensson warn against the large rate hikes necessary to address financial stability concerns
Poloz explores ‘risk management’ in policy framework
Bank of Canada governor says monetary policy cannot always be used to lean against the wind, but financial stability impact can be taken into account on occasion
Fed encouraged to act as FOMC members eye new data
Stanley Fischer reveals encouragement from emerging market officials to ‘just do it’ and raise rates; Dennis Lockhart singles out importance of consumer data in coming weeks
FOMC minutes spell out inflation concerns
Several members were concerned disinflationary pressure from low oil prices and a strong dollar could persist longer than anticipated and ‘delay or diminish’ the expected rise in inflation
Minneapolis Fed president open to cutting rates
Narayana Kocherlakota stresses room for improvement in US labour market, noting low inflation could give the Fed space to pursue more accommodative policy
ECB watching oil and euro closely for inflation risks
Deflation has become less likely in the eurozone since the implementation of quantitative easing, but falling oil prices are pressing on inflation expectations, governing council says
BoE turns attention to risk-free rate as markets push out expectation of hike
MPC mulling the question of whether lower rate expectations will provide enough stimulus to overcome growing risks from emerging markets; rates stay on hold
Economists expected lower inflation under Yellen than Bernanke, SNB paper finds
Sample of economists from ‘reputable academic and policy institutions’ on aggregate expected slightly lower inflation under Yellen compared to if Bernanke had stayed on
Colombia concerned by loosening inflation expectations
Unexpected increase in inflation spurs Colombian central bank into action, as it raises key rate by 25 basis points; observers divided over importance of growth risks
BoE paper extracts inflation expectations from market rates
Market rates are an imperfect measure of expected future inflation, say economists, who break them down into constituent parts, stripping out risk premia and the ‘wedge’ between RPI and CPI
Reserve Bank of India ‘front-loads’ easing with 50bp cut
Rajan points to deterioration in global outlook and desire to boost investment; RBI will now focus on improving the transmission of cumulative 125bp reduction in key rate
Kuroda unfazed by ‘somewhat stagnant developments’
Japan’s economy has been through a summer lull but the BoJ chief insists it will bounce back, with inflation set to rise as expectations shift and low oil prices pass through
Global indicators can boost inflation forecasts in short term, paper finds
Author uses global inflation indicators and Brent oil price to augment domestic inflation forecasts in 523 countries, finding both improve accuracy
BoE’s FPC says no immediate action required on buy-to-let
Bank of England financial policy committee is ‘alert’ to impact of buy-to-let loans on the housing market and overall financial volatility but finds no ‘immediate’ case for action
Micro-data matters for unemployment, says BoE’s Broadbent
Deputy governor becomes latest economist to stress importance of micro data for macro policy, warning overreliance on ‘simple aggregates’ may lead central bankers astray
Draghi: too early to judge impact of global events on eurozone inflation
Mario Draghi says slowing growth in EMs, strong euro and weak commodity prices have ‘renewed downside risks’ to outlook; Peter Praet says eurozone still ‘going through correction phase’