Inflation
Colombia cuts rates to record-low 2%
Below-target inflation allows new central bank action to boost growth
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
Record-low inflation may require ECB to boost PEPP purchases
HICP index expected to decline year on year by 0.2% in August; core inflation at record-low 0.4%
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
Fed adopts average inflation target
Powell says FOMC will also allow employment to run above estimated maximum level
Eurozone needs ‘forceful policy response’ – Schnabel
Banks in eurozone face “substantial pressure” from Covid-19, ECB board member warns
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
The eurozone’s eastern conundrum
Bulgaria and Croatia expect a net positive effect as they take final steps to join the euro, while the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland remain reluctant
Bank of Canada seeks public views on inflation targeting
Canadian central bank aims to increase public engagement with monetary policy review
Bank of Zambia cuts rates as Covid concerns intensify
Zambian central bank calls for debt sustainability policies as growth and inflation forecasts worsen
Financial indicators can warn of European growth risks – ECB paper
Index that aggregates financial variables in non-linear way provides most information – researchers
RBA expects long period of low inflation – minutes
Policy set to remain on hold, as board members say term funding is having desired effect
Podcast: Cleveland Fed director on all things inflation and Covid-19
Robert Rich discusses money supply growth and muted inflation, plus new Fed research on the Phillips curve and alternative inflation targets
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
Book notes: The menace of fiscal QE, by George Selgin
Much of this book is even more relevant, thought-provoking and important following Covid-19
Bank of Mexico cites ‘major challenges’ as it cuts rate
Policy-makers focused on maintaining “room for manoeuvre” as inflation risks evolve
RBNZ boosts asset purchases and prepares new policies
Negative rates and funding for lending programme under “active preparation”
Romania cuts rates as rising Covid-19 cases hurt economy
Central bank says resurgent pandemic risks recovery and calls for more clarity on fiscal policy
Brazil’s central bank cuts rates to record low
MPC says there is limited space for more monetary policy stimulus as crisis continues
BoE says negative rates ‘in toolbox’ and forecasts slow recovery
First “proper” forecast since Covid-19 outbreak gives little hope of a V-shaped recovery
Lane stresses inflation will determine ECB’s PEPP purchases
Lower inflation outlook could mean the programme will remain longer than anticipated
Colombia cuts rates to record low of 2.25%
Central bank has revised down GDP growth to a range between -6% and -10% for 2020
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says