Growth
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
FOMC will lose two dissenting doves in 2018
Kashkari and Evans were the only members who voted against the last rate rise on December 13
Public spending cuts have bigger multiplier than fiscal stimulus – paper
Research weakens case for expansionary policies, say authors
Iran needs financial sector reform – IMF staff
Central bank should have greater independence and supervisory powers, urge IMF staff
Credit no longer supporting Chinese growth – research
China’s economy has become “saturated with credit”, argues IMF research paper, with fiscal stimulus primarily boosting manufacturing
Weak inflation in Nordic countries likely to keep rates on hold
Sveriges Riksbank and Norges Bank set to prolong their dovish stances in last policy meeting of 2017; Iceland holds rates
India needs radical reforms, says academic
State ownership has gone too far but the state needs stronger capabilities in other areas, argues Vijay Joshi
BoE paper lays out ‘financial conditions index’ for UK
Index proves valuable as a summary measure and also as an input to forecasting
Small open economies benefit from QE spillovers – IMF paper
Fed’s QE had a similar net positive effect in Canada to that in the US
Income convergence in eurozone faltered before euro, research finds
Strong financial cycle concealed lack of productivity growth since 1990s in Spain and Italy, implying euro may not be to blame
Stronger growth improves financial conditions in Europe – ECB review
Manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment bolsters growth across the region
Implementation of new ECB rules on NPLs may be delayed
Daniele Nouy dismisses criticisms as “myths and misinterpretations”
Bank of Korea makes first hike in six years
Central bank triggers hiking cycle despite below-target inflation, as economy shows “solid” growth
Strong growth and lower unemployment allows Fed to normalise policy, Yellen says
Outgoing chairwoman adds policy is not preset and will depend on economic data
Slower health care price rises limiting US inflation, San Francisco Fed paper says
Medicare prices rise by 1.1% annually since 2012, compared with 3.5% in mid-2000s
Ultra-low rates hampered productivity in US, researchers find
A slower pace of policy normalisation can help boost productivity and growth
Bank of Mexico cuts growth forecasts for 2017 due to earthquakes
Renegotiation of Nafta is main downside risk for economy, outgoing governor Carstens says
European recovery may be stronger than previously thought
If the great recession and sovereign debt crisis are considered a single shock, “recovery is in line with – or better than – historical patterns”
‘Paradigm shift’ needed for S Korea, warns IMF paper
Authors say “big push” is needed toward implementing social protection and “greater” economic freedoms
Brexit uncertainty could shrink UK economy by 2% – BoE deputy
Negative effects of Brexit beginning to take effect, says Dave Ramsden
Fed’s Williams proposes new tools to deal with future crisis
Structural factors beyond central banks’ control keep natural rate of interest lower
Kuwait could create financial stability committee – IMF
The central bank could strengthen supervision by creating a new committee, say IMF staff; the country is weathering oil shocks well
US economy requires neutral policy – Atlanta Fed president
Although the labour market is approaching full employment, inflation remains subdued
Venezuelan crisis deepens; rating agencies declare default
Russia agrees to restructure $3.15 billion to facilitate repayments to creditors