Financial cycle
Network effects magnify impact of US monetary policy – BdF paper
Researchers find that impact of US monetary policy is increased by complex cross-border interactions
‘Sharp tightening’ can create multiple equilibria – New York Fed paper
“Multimodality” means economy could be stuck in “bad equilibrium” for a long time, authors warn
ECB paper presents new measure for global financial cycle
Researchers say global financial cycle and large capital flow episodes show consistent links
Global house price growth slows, but China still surging
BIS figures show broad slowdown in growth, though prices are still rising fast in some places
BIS’s Borio warns interacting financial cycles destabilise global system
Domestic and global cycles interact and amplify one another, BIS official says
Cross-border claims growing at fastest rate since crisis – BIS
Non-banks continue to see the fastest growth, latest international banking data shows
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Borio and co-authors attack concept of natural interest rate
BIS paper sets out a model in which “monetary policy hysteresis” can do lasting damage to the economy
Brazil’s central bank gains powers to license foreign-based banks
Central bank says it will speed up entrance of foreign-owned firms to banking sector
IMF paper tests conventional wisdom on economic and financial cycles
World cycles have not become stronger during globalisation period, researchers find
30 years of central banking
Central banks face credibility tests on a number of fronts
BoE paper: ‘tails’ matter when studying global financial cycle
Authors look to the tails of the distribution to understand exchange rate risk in the global cycle
Mark Carney on joined-up policy-making, forward guidance and Brexit
BoE governor rules out negative rates and change to inflation targets, offers update on too-big-to-fail and use of CCyBs, highlights challenges of an asymmetric monetary system, hits out at cumbersome payments and warns Facebook’s libra cannot ‘learn as…
How Singapore manages its reserves
MAS managing director Ravi Menon explains Singapore’s total approach to reserve management, which includes the use of customised fixed income benchmarks and tapping into external investment expertise
Tighter loan-to-value ratios have stronger impact than a reduction
Other regulations might impact the effectiveness of LTV limits, the authors say
Bank of Italy paper presents new financial stress indicator
New model identifies financial stresses missed by others, authors say
Bank capital ratios fall for first time since 2011
Basel monitoring report finds declines in both risk-weighted capital and leverage ratios
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE publishes revamped FPC communications
New approach follows the style of MPC announcements more closely
IMF paper sets out growth-at-risk framework
Tool for assessing macro-financial conditions likely to enhance surveillance, authors say
BoE’s leveraged loan research draws interest from overseas
UK exposures are modest but firms in US and Japan have bigger holdings of CLOs, which carry echoes of the subprime mortgage crisis
Low rates can encourage risk-taking – BoE paper
Author models the risk-taking channel of monetary policy alongside a “bankruptcy channel”