Financial cycle
Debt-service ratio limits have greatest welfare benefit – BoE research
Authors find macro-prudential tools can also boost the transmission of monetary policy
BIS paper pins down causal impact of capital flows
Study based on confidential BIS data finds capital controls can help prevent overheating
Dollar funding drives global house price movements – BIS paper
Non-US banks often depend heavily on dollar funding to issue mortgages, authors show
Eurozone credit tightened in Q3
Worsening economic outlook boosts borrowers’ credit risk, says the ECB
Transparency on financial stability not always optimal – Fed paper
Author finds upside to opacity, but says central banks may face time inconsistency problem
BIS paper models credit booms and busts
Authors outline heterogeneous-agent framework that could support macro-prudential policy
Financial indicators can warn of European growth risks – ECB paper
Index that aggregates financial variables in non-linear way provides most information – researchers
BIS economists test fixes for credit-to-GDP gap
Measure has drawbacks as early warning sign, but proposed solutions have problems, authors find
IMF suspends country assessments until April 2021
Resumption of assessments will need to be “gradual” and undertaken flexibly, says fund
Hélène Rey on macro-financial distortions and ‘phase 2’ of Covid-19
The LBS economics professor discusses monetary policy and financial exuberance, debt restructuring, and the use of machine learning to optimise ‘early-warning’ models to inform macro-prudential policy
Financial shocks explain ‘large share’ of US business cycle – BoE paper
New identification method helps avoid pitfalls encountered by earlier research, author says
BoE paper explores global financial cycles since 1880
Cycles in credit and housing have become more pronounced, but only for some economies
Riksbank launches new financial vulnerability metric
“Systemic risk indicator” is designed to track overall financial stability across market segments
BIS paper: twin financial cycles can ‘turbocharge’ crashes
Policy-makers should differentiate between domestic and global cycles, authors say
ETFs are exposing EMEs to global capital flows – Fed paper
Sensitivity of ETF flows to global financial conditions is 2.5 times higher than mutual fund flows, researchers find
Global cross-border lending growth at highest rate since 2008
Bank claims continued to grow “rapidly” in Q3 2019, latest BIS figures show
Network effects magnify impact of US monetary policy – BdF paper
Researchers find that impact of US monetary policy is increased by complex cross-border interactions
‘Sharp tightening’ can create multiple equilibria – New York Fed paper
“Multimodality” means economy could be stuck in “bad equilibrium” for a long time, authors warn
ECB paper presents new measure for global financial cycle
Researchers say global financial cycle and large capital flow episodes show consistent links
Global house price growth slows, but China still surging
BIS figures show broad slowdown in growth, though prices are still rising fast in some places
BIS’s Borio warns interacting financial cycles destabilise global system
Domestic and global cycles interact and amplify one another, BIS official says
Cross-border claims growing at fastest rate since crisis – BIS
Non-banks continue to see the fastest growth, latest international banking data shows
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities