BIS paper pins down causal impact of capital flows

Study based on confidential BIS data finds capital controls can help prevent overheating

The Bank for International Settlements, Basel
The Bank for International Settlements, Basel
Photo: Ulrich Roth

A study published by the Bank for International Settlements breaks new ground by using confidential data on bank lending to isolate the causal effects of cross-border capital flows.

The working paper, by Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltrán, Federico Grinberg and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, “disentangles” the causality by using BIS locational banking statistics to construct “granular” instrumental variables. The authors note capital flows are often driven by changes in risk sentiment, which is

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