Financial crisis
Machine learning model flags importance of yield curve for crisis prediction
Model has potential to allow policy action before crisis hits, BoE paper says
Crises are non-linear, beware high debt levels – research
IMF paper warns against complacency on high debt levels
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Yngve Slyngstad: contrarian person, brilliant investor
Knut Kjær reflects on the character of the man that has led Norway’s $1.1 trillion SWF
Andrew Bailey to be next BoE governor
FCA chief will return to central bank after turbulent term at sister regulator
‘Sharp tightening’ can create multiple equilibria – New York Fed paper
“Multimodality” means economy could be stuck in “bad equilibrium” for a long time, authors warn
Paper looks at pro-cyclical consumption in Spain
Households reacted strongly to fears of job losses during economic crisis, Bank of Spain says
RBNZ to impose 18% capital ratio on big banks
Central bank finalises plans for substantial increase in minimum capital requirements
Book notes: The Japanese central banking system compared with its European and American counterparts, by Yoshiharu Oritani
Book has “no equal” in reviewing new microeconomic theory for central banking
Canada’s fiscal stimulus worth 100bp of rate cuts – Poloz
Infrastructure investment has also helped to reduce financial vulnerabilities
Will the Fed pass its year-end funding test?
An unprecedented rate spike in September prompted the Fed to inject billions into funding markets
Canada’s Poloz on monetary policy limits, transparency and cyber recovery
Speaks about stagflation risks from trade wars, the value of market signals and Canada’s CBDC plans
The challenges facing Christine Lagarde
New ECB chief needs to lead a successful review of the ECB’s monetary and communications policy
Book notes: The Bank of England and the government debt, by William Allen
Required reading for Treasury, Debt Management Office and Bank of England staff
Was Draghi one of the great central bankers?
A look back at how the ECB chief confronted existential concerns about the euro
ECB paper sets out stress tests for investment funds
Depletion in assets under management could reach 24% for equity funds and 5% for bond funds
Norway’s SWF chief to step down after 12 years
Yngve Slyngstad presided over international diversification and the adoption of real estate, while total assets multiplied by four
BoE’s Tenreyro comes to the defence of flexible exchange rates
Policy-maker challenges conventional wisdom in several areas of economics
Cross-border claims growing at fastest rate since crisis – BIS
Non-banks continue to see the fastest growth, latest international banking data shows
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation
‘Hegemonic digital currency’ could help fix global system – Carney
Using CBDC to facilitate online sales could bring about more rapid change, governor says
FSB calls out ‘uneven’ regulation as vulnerabilities evolve
Board cautions against complacency; Basel Committee says members are still missing deadlines
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
DNB paper looks at how regulation affects systemic risk
Restrictions on entry increased systemic risk before financial crisis, researchers say