Bonds
How much do investors really care about Fed independence?
The answer for some is more nuanced than you might think
Yield spreads of bonds held by mutual funds decline in QE – ECB paper
Bond purchase programmes compress risk premia and boost demand, research finds
Aging population may improve fiscal sustainability – paper
More old people means more money to invest in assets like government bonds, researchers point out
Fed’s new leverage ratio: the horse that never left the gate
Most of the biggest dealers aren’t leverage constrained now, and experts are sceptical that banks will use the extra capacity for Treasuries
Bessent expects BoJ to raise policy rate
US Treasury secretary also says inflation in Japan is dragging up yields on long-term US bonds
Climate risks still on the fringe of monetary policy in Asia
Notwithstanding efforts by the PBoC and BoJ, there is still a need to observe persistent and measurable impacts on inflation and output before climate change truly influences interest rate policy, argues Sayuri Shirai
Investment funds procyclical to bond markets – ECB blog
Vehicles sell sovereign debt in times of stress while other investors step in to buy it
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
Is this time different for Argentina?
Reserve shortage and overvalued currency cast a pall over an otherwise successful stabilisation campaign
Book notes: How low interest rates change the world, by Jesper Rangvid
This book investigates the possible causes of ultra-low interest rates, the problems low rates cause and the path of future rates
Trump’s tariffs and the emerging market economies
Steve Kamin says EMEs are likely to escape the worst outcomes from capricious and chaotic trade policy
The foundations of sovereign finance are quietly evolving
Digital settlement infrastructure is taking shape. Now SSA issuers must decide how, not whether, to participate, argues Domenico Nardelli
CBI’s approval of Israel bond prospectus was illegal – Irish lawmaker
Gary Gannon claims bank’s actions misled investors about risks and were in breach of country's Genocide Act
Tobias Adrian on the integrated policy framework amid tariff shocks
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks about policy reaction functions to supply and demand shocks, scenario-based analyses, Treasury market dynamics and emerging market resilience
BoE shifts focus to non-banks in sovereign bond markets
Aggregated data on leverage and positioning reveals growing gilt repo borrowing by hedge funds
More adjustment needed to JGB purchases – BoJ board member
Takata says current plan will increase supply to early 2000s levels, with potentially destabilising effects
Geopolitical ructions and the role of the dollar
Implications of the new US administration’s policies for the international monetary system and central banks
Ex-OCC chief Michael Hsu on the impact of an America-first agenda
The former acting comptroller of the currency speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the future of the US Treasury market, Fed independence, financial de-regulation, the Genius Act and international co-operation
Hedge funds scale back steepener positions as risks rise
Uncertainties around US Treasury issuance and timing of Fed rate cuts see investors trim ‘consensus’ trade
BoJ board member says rate rises likely
Naoki Tamura predicts tightening of policy as economy improves
Paraguay’s Carvallo Spalding on resilience and cutting its inflation target
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) governor speaks about lowering the inflation target to 3.5%, opening up to foreign investors and promoting inclusion through digital payments
BoJ holds rates, plans to slow bond purchases
Central bank keeps policy rate at 0.5%, will reduce JGB taper from next year
BoE analysis sparks debate over reuse of repo collateral
Central bank policy analyst contends reuse of collateral may amplify volatility in repo rates
BoJ advised to slow or maintain JGB tapering pace from 2026
Bond traders satisfied with current plan but disagree on future balance sheet policy