Central Banking
Central Bank of Brazil faces ‘policy dilemmas’
Tombini facing tough challenge as inflation rises into double figures while the IMF predicts deeper recession; observers divided on what comes next
Danish economists test measure of systemic risk
National Bank of Denmark paper uses ‘SRISK’ measure to assess systemic risk in the Danish financial sector, finding it was a good predictor of banks that needed bailing out
People: Mozambique deputy moves to airline; Mervyn King joins Aston Villa FC board
Bank of Mozambique deputy moved from central bank to national airline; former BoE governor joins premier league team board of directors; and more
Yellen says Fed unsure about legal issues surrounding negative rates
Fed chair tells Congressional committee she sees no reason why the Fed could not cut below zero if need be, but legal issues have not been ‘fully investigated’
Research compares borrower-based macro-pru tools
Debt service-to-income caps generate ‘less pronounced macro feedback’ in the short term than loan-to-value limits, working paper finds
BoJ moves to ‘ease stress’ in JGB market
More generous limits applied to securities lending facility designed to alleviate strains in the market for government bonds, though liquidity indicators do not show clear signs of tightening
Bank recapitalisation is a ‘powerful’ policy instrument, paper suggests
Economy likely to remain in an ‘anaemic state’ until certain conditions met, research says; bank recapitalisation more effective than fiscal expansion in encouraging aggregate demand
Monetary policy does not ‘persistently impact’ bank lending, paper finds
Working paper published by Central Bank of Cyprus examines the impact of interest rate changes on both lending and credit risk
Research considers impact of fiscal consolidation on debt-to-GDP ratio
Working paper published by ECB finds fiscal consolidation conducted through a revenue increase, rather than a spending cut, is ‘self-defeating austerity’
Canadian deputy warns limits to macro-prudential tools may impact monetary policy
Timothy Lane says fiscal policy may have to step into the breach and provide stimulus when using monetary policy would risk creating ‘vulnerabilities’ macro-prudential policy can’t offset
NZ has ample space to respond to risks – IMF staff
An International Monetary Fund staff report says there is room to ease monetary policy further if need be, while authorities should prepare more prudential measures
RBI report lays ground for trading new derivatives
Working group proposes allowing new interest rate options in India to improve financial institutions' ability to hedge interest rate risk
BoE’s Cunliffe: UK may be close to debt sustainability limit
Deputy governor says analysis of recent UK credit cycle suggests rises in debt may leave the economy vulnerable; Cunliffe would consider action if debt-to-GDP ratio rises
China relaxes QFII limits amid calls for capital controls
FX regulator shortens ‘lock-up’ period, during which foreign investors must wait before repatriating funds, from one year to three months
IMF staff call for clarity on Morocco macro-prudential body
Staff report calls on government to clarify powers of inter-agency committee chaired by central bank governor; separate assessment details work on toolkit
German and French central bank heads back creation of eurozone Treasury
Weidmann and Villeroy de Galhau issue joint call for more integrated eurozone, potentially including joint treasury; alternative would mean different approach to sovereign risk
Paper models complications to systemic financial shock responses
Different classes of illiquid asset and different types of banking network produce complicated responses to systemic financial shocks, Bank of Italy working paper argues
RBI’s Gandhi: are regulators ‘barking up the right trees’?
Deputy governor stresses effective regulation is not about ever more detailed rules but rather taking a broad view and spotting emerging risks early on
Eurosystem reveals rules on national asset holdings
ECB publishes an agreement governing the size of ‘non-monetary policy holdings’ at national central banks in the eurozone; aggregate net financial assets totalled €490 billion at end-2015
BIS data sheds light on complex shift in global liquidity
There are signs global liquidity might be going into reverse for emerging markets; digging into the data shows situation is more complicated than aggregate figures imply
Research considers why macroeconomic announcements impact asset prices
A working paper published by the ECB weighs the ‘intrinsic value’ of macroeconomic news announcements in the US, finding timing is crucial to maintaining it
Ukraine governor reveals move towards inflation targeting
Ukraine’s central bank is already setting policy with an eye on an inflation target while it awaits a formal mandate, its governor says; banking ‘cleanup’ is ‘near the finish line’
BoJ report spells out reasons for dissent on negative rate
Board members had wide range of concerns over cutting rate below zero, including communication challenges, risk of financial instability and danger of triggering a global race to the bottom
Caruana marks out dangerous nexus between debt, oil and the US dollar
BIS chief points to interactions of dollar borrowing by emerging markets, US rate hikes and the oil price, as latest data suggests world may be balanced on the edge of a drop in global liquidity