United States
Knot warns deviations from global standards must be temporary
“If the US starts distancing itself from international standards, that is quite something,” says Dutch central bank chief
Fed’s new framework will help poorer communities – former Fed official
New approach recognises benefits of long expansion to low-income communities, says Stephanie Aaronson
Influential Fed economist Thomas Laubach dies
Current and former Fed officials pay tribute to the US central bank’s German influencer, who died on September 2
Judging scarcity of reserves depends on Treasuries outstanding – paper
Increase in short-term Treasuries causes money markets to behave, as there is a scarcity of reserves, researchers find
Fed feeling its way with new inflation framework
Average inflation targeting is broadly dovish, and could see rates stay lower for even longer
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
Average inflation targeting could cut inequality – Fed paper
‘Hank’ models tend to be supportive of Fed’s new approach to inflation targeting, research finds
Fed adopts average inflation target
Powell says FOMC will also allow employment to run above estimated maximum level
People: IMF appoints strategy head
Pazarbasioglu moves back to IMF; Lithuanian president appoints central bank board member
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
DLT could improve US payments – Fed team
Fed’s “FooWire Project” built simulated payments network using DLT platform
Fed paper looks at different CBDC types
“Account-based”, “cash equivalent” and “hybrid” CBDCs all have varying advantages – researchers
Stress test results affect consumer credit – Philadelphia Fed paper
Banks reduce credit supply after worse-than-expected stress test results, researchers find
Former Fed officials urge Senate to reject Shelton
Trump nominee’s views are “extreme”, officials say, as two Republican senators pledge opposition
Mexican sovereign debt faces tighter conditions - SF Fed paper
Liquidity premiums reached record highs in pandemic while foreign holdings fell, researchers find
Podcast: Cleveland Fed director on all things inflation and Covid-19
Robert Rich discusses money supply growth and muted inflation, plus new Fed research on the Phillips curve and alternative inflation targets
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Bundesbank paper uses neural networks for rate forecasting
Artificial neural networks outperform linear and non-linear functions, author says
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
Book notes: The menace of fiscal QE, by George Selgin
Much of this book is even more relevant, thought-provoking and important following Covid-19
Boston Fed and MIT collaborate on digital currency research
Research results on software architecture will be released as open source
ECB paper looks at Bayesian nowcasting
BVAR models have several advantages over Dynamic Factor Models, researchers say