Federal Reserve System
Fed paper presents method to better estimate systemic risk
Authors find their approach outperforms several commonly used systemic risk indicators
Inattention helps explain flat Phillips curve – Fed paper
Inflation may be less sensitive to shocks because people are not paying attention, authors say
Flatter US yield curve may not herald a new crisis – San Francisco Fed
The curve inversion has not materialised, while low long-term yields may be related to quantitative easing
Policymakers should focus on slack even amid uncertainty – Fed paper
“Standard advice” from the literature may be flawed under current conditions, authors warn
Clarida confirmed as Fed vice-chair
US Senate approves appointment with 69 votes in favour, 26 against and four abstentions
Passive investing boosts some risks and cuts others – Fed paper
Authors assess four ways the surge in passive investing might impact stability
Powell warns not all US problems can be solved by Fed
Fed chair implicitly defends monetary policy in face of Trump’s attacks
Senior Fed officials split over the state of US job market
Regional presidents and FOMC members see US under, approaching or beyond full employment
People: Chinese and Turkish central banks each gain new deputy governors
Bank of England director to lead Irish central bank financial stability department; and more
Trump says Federal Reserve should give him ‘some help’
US President says central bank should hold policy rates while he negotiates trade deals
Fed may have to speed up rate rises, Australian governor warns
Philip Lowe says fiscal stimulus could lead to US inflation growing faster than expected
BdF paper looks at ‘hawks, doves and swingers’
Education and economic conditions at birth shape the views of FOMC members, argues the paper
Atlanta Fed estimates US GDP growth remains above 4%
Economy expanded by 4.1% in Q2, in strongest performance since mid-2014
Next financial crisis “will be brewing” in shadow banking – Bullard
Silicon Valley disruption represents threat to financial stability; Fed has limited powers to counter it despite FSOC and tough new bank rules, says Eighth District president
Banks ask Fed to delay CECL impact on stress testing
Fed asked not to implement CECL into CCAR until 2021
HKMA spends over $2 billion to defend local currency
Hong Kong dollar fell to hit lower limit of its 7.75-7.85 peg to US dollar
Tariffs unlikely to have lasting impact on US economy – Bullard
Disruption of global supply chain could be biggest risk of trade dispute to date, says St Louis Fed president
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Dealers seek FRTB carve-out for Libor transition
Swaps could be hit with capital add-on as liquidity tails off in Libor
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
Older population increases financial fraud risks – Atlanta Fed
Most financial exploitation of elderly goes unreported, researcher says
Goldman, Morgan Stanley push for stress test changes
Balance sheets will shrink in a crisis, not grow, trading houses argue
Trump and Erdoğan: cut from the same populist cloth
Barry Eichengreen compares the respective strongmen of the US and Turkey, as the latter country spirals towards crisis
Imperfect algorithms impact market pricing – Fed paper
News-parsing algorithms create temporary distortions and may cut liquidity, paper finds