Economics
Evaluating economy-wide risk measurement tools
Bank of Canada paper acknowledges useful information exists on credit risk models, but argues further work is needed
European Central Bank – November Monthly Bulletin
ECB’s monthly report suggests eurozone inflation rates will inch back into positive territory towards the end of the year
Recovery will be shaped like a tick: Fed’s Fisher
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, explained why there would be no V-shaped economic recovery
Fed presidents focus on commercial property fears
Atlanta and San Francisco Federal Reserve chiefs echo William Dudley’s warning on commercial real estate
Fed poll positive on lending standards but demand still weak
The Federal Reserve’s loan officer opinion survey shows demand for loans in most areas is still weak ; proportion of banks tightening lending standards declining
Output does not rebound, but recovers in the long run
A new working paper from the IMF argues that the absence of simultaneous banking and currency crisis and high levels of investment shore up output in the medium term
Asia’s moment
The timely infusion of government support has led to a resurgence in Asia that has caught observers off guard, argues Malan Rietveld
Interview: Marion Williams
Blair Baker spoke to the governor of the Central Bank of Barbados about the how the crisis has affected the island economy and the challenges she faces
Spain should hold on tightening fiscal policy
R. Anton Braun, University of Tokyo, compares the current Spanish recession with Japan in the 1990s and looks at the impact of fiscal policy measures
Ireland needs clearer macroprudential mandate: OECD
OECD calls for the development of more effective macroprudential instruments
Ireland on how to make better forecasts
Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland looks at whether modelling structural change improves macroeconomic forecasting
Chinese demand spurring east Asian growth: World Bank
Report says China fueling resurgence; cautions on performance elsewhere
European Commission optimistic on recovery
Autumn forecast for 2009-2011 suggests gradual recovery
IMF upbeat on Hong Kong
GDP predicted to grow 5% next year after 2% contraction in 2009, says IMF
The role of monetary policy in mitigating terms of trade instability
A paper from the Reserve Bank of Australia finds that floating exchange-rate regimes play the central role in soothing terms of trade volatility, followed by monetary policy measures
FSA’s Turner is right to push for a Tobin tax
The financial sectors in mature economies grew too large in the run-up to the crisis. A Tobin tax can help prevent this from happening again, argues Costas Lapavitsas, a professor at the School for Oriental and African Studies
Exports to lead Estonian recovery
Exports and euro adoption will be crucial in the Baltic state’s economic resurgence
A new transmission model – research
An IMF working paper outlines a panel unobserved components model of the transmission mechanism
Global balance-sheet growth behind dollar scarcity
Bank for International Settlements looks at the causes of the dollar shortage in the global banking system during the crisis
Bank of Albania – Annual Report 2008
Economic growth was in line with projections in 2008, notes Ardian Fullani in the central bank’s latest Annual Report
Euro-area credit standards show signs of easing
European Central Bank’s lending survey shows substantial decline in banks tightening their credit standards
Liikanen calls for post-crisis reality check
Erkki Liikanen, governor of the Bank of Finland, says optimism must be reined in
Curaçao and Sint Maarten should dollarise – Tromp
Bank of the Netherlands Antilles’s Emsley Tromp says formal dollarisation would improve the islands’ macroeconomic stability