Monetary Policy
Trinidad and Tobago aims to stay a step ahead of the Fed
Jwala Rambarran tells Central Banking the central bank must remain ‘ahead of the curve’ and ensure a ‘strong enough’ rate differential between assets denominated in local and US currency
Shift in FOMC language intended to show December hike ‘may well become appropriate’
Minutes from October meeting reveal thinking behind change in language; a ‘couple’ of members raised concerns the change could be misinterpreted as a stronger signal than it was
Mass walkout at RBI disrupts clearing and settlement
The majority of the RBI’s 17,000 staff took ‘mass casual leave’ today, interrupting some RBI operations, though normalcy was ‘largely’ restored after negotiations
Sarb raises rate 25bp now to avoid bigger move later
Increasing risk of inflation spurs the South African Reserve Bank to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%; two out of six MPC members preferred not to move
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan expects policy to ‘remain accommodative for some time’
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president says FOMC was ‘prudent’ to wait for more data in past few months; it is ‘probable’ rates will be lifted gradually
Mexico should ‘phase out’ daily FX sales, IMF staff say
Staff at IMF find interventions have ‘contributed to stability’ in the foreign exchange market, while a report following Article IV consultations recommends moving away from daily auctions
Honohan sets out virtues of new crisis tools in final speech
Irish governor stresses potential of direct recapitalisation and GDP-linked loans to help bolster debt sustainability in crisis-hit countries; expects successor Lane to come in with ‘big broom’
Market and survey-based measures of expectations provide useful information, ECB paper says
Survey-based and market-based measures of inflation expectations provide useful information on future eurozone price increases, a European Central Bank paper argues
Changing funding patterns cut both ways for emerging markets, central bankers say
Emerging markets are moving towards greater use of capital market funding, but while this could bring benefits for monetary policy, it also throws up a host of stability risks
Turkish paper finds Fed staff forecasts superior to rivals
Working paper finds forecasts in the ‘Greenbook’ were consistently more accurate than their commercial equivalents between 1974 and 2009
Canadian paper sees costs to leaning against the wind
Research estimates difference in policy rates between ‘lean’ and ‘clean’ central banks, while identifying costs in terms of inflation and output deviations
BoE researchers model trend inflation with ambiguity
Researchers develop a model featuring positive trend inflation determined in part by the degree of ambiguity around central bank actions
Russian corporate banking recovers despite sanctions and oil price fall, governor says
Bank of Russia ready to expand for large-scale foreign exchange operations if oil price falls
Dudley leads Fed speeches as December meeting looms
William Dudley says conditions necessary for rate hike ‘could soon be satisfied’ but notes concerns about inflation outlook; Evans, Fischer and Lacker also speak on US outlook
BIS paper models non-linear eurozone crisis impact
Researchers attempt to capture endogenous amplification mechanisms in causing widened lending spreads during eurozone crises
Identifying the effects of structural shocks exposes problems with real-time data, researchers say
Using a model that identifies the effects of structural shocks, the paper finds ‘substantial and systematic’ differences between ways real-time and final data respond to monetary shocks
Challenging crosscurrents from divergent monetary policy
Divergent monetary policies around the world and challenges linked to China’s economic rebalancing present central bankers with some opportunities as well as numerous threats
More sharia-compliant instruments would aid liquidity management, IMF paper argues
Working paper focused on Gulf states notes a lack of instruments has forced Islamic banks to hold a lot of cash, while making it harder for central banks to conduct monetary operations
Low rates from QE poses risks to some pension and insurance firms in eurozone, Visco warns
Pension funds and insurance companies in some eurozone countries may need to adjust their practices to limit the risks arising from asset purchases, Italian governor says
Rajan picked as BIS board vice-chair as he calls for global ‘rules of the game’
RBI governor chosen to take over position Masaaki Shirakawa vacated in 2013; delivers lecture in Frankfurt calling for global ‘rules of the game’
Sarb’s Mminele fears a ‘lengthening drought’ in emerging market capital flows
Sarb deputy warns emerging market nations must maintain “utmost vigilance” as they are buffeted by the effects of divergent monetary policies and fears about the state of the Chinese economy
Riksbank paper examines mixed forecast performance
Researchers find the central bank has tended to be overly optimistic on foreign economic performance, but makes similar errors to other institutions
No fireworks as Bank of England keeps rate options open
Rates remain on hold as BoE balances domestic strength with signs of weakness overseas; MPC hints a few forces could prompt an earlier hike than markets are predicting