Monetary Policy
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
Bank of England's Vlieghe wants more nuanced approach to monetary policy
Bank of England policy-maker says high levels of debt, ageing population and distribution of income combine to make him ‘patient' about rate hike; questions modelling based on representative agents
Bank of Italy outlines downside risks as inflation falls
Annual HICP inflation fell to 0.1% according to December estimate, just below eurozone average; Bank of Italy warns that international situation poses ‘significant risks’ to European recovery
Central banks struggling to exit ‘confused period’, economists say
The financial crisis forced a regime change on central banks, raising challenges to independence, analysis and policy tools, which have yet to be fully resolved, say panellists in Brussels
New York Fed president keeping eye on expectations
William Dudley expects inflation expectations to increase if the economy keeps growing at an above-trend pace, but any deviation could be cause for concern
Zeti warns of ‘immense' challenges in 2016
Bank Negara Malaysia governor warns of potentially persistent threats to long-term growth at the AFF conference in Hong Kong, but sees a silver lining if policy-makers get it right
Polish governor says inflation will rise slower than expected
Inflation will not turn positive in January 2016 as previously expected, governor Marek Belka says; monetary policy council keeps policy rate unchanged
BoJ paper: inflation expectations do not match target
Study of ‘dissonance’ in forecasts between economic agents and the central bank finds people only believe the BoJ will hit its target in the short to medium term – after that, inflation drops
Volatility fails to shake outlook as BoE holds rates steady
Latest MPC minutes are largely preoccupied with discussion of international developments, but falling oil prices and market volatility do not herald major change in stance
BoE paper seeks to improve forecasts with adaptive model
Using an adaptive model in conjunction with heavy-tailed t-distributions allows authors to deliver ‘substantial improvements’ in forecasting inflation
Indonesia cuts interest rates following Jakarta attack
Local reports suggest central bank's board was meeting at time of bomb blasts in downtown Jakarta; rate cut ‘should provide overdue boost' to the economy but comes with risks, says analyst
Reserve manager of the year: National Bank of Denmark
The National Bank of Denmark's new risk budget-based investment strategy stood up well to the unprecedented flows of funds into and out of the country in 2015.
Consultancy and advisory services provider of the year: BlackRock Solutions
A key partner to major central banks engaging in complex asset purchases, asset quality reviews, resolution mechanisms and strategic asset allocations
Sarb deputy governor sees growing inflation risks ahead of MPC meeting
South African Reserve Bank policy-makers must assess ‘very carefully’ whether its stance remains appropriate, Mminele says; MPC meets January 21
SNB’s Zurbrügg lays out considerations around interventions
Vice-chairman of governing board says there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ method for deciding when or how to intervene in the foreign exchange market
Survey data offers chance to assess eurozone macro-prudential policies, paper argues
Data from the eurozone’s Bank Lending Survey can be used to analyse the effectiveness of different macro-prudential policies, an IMF working paper argues; subject is little known, researchers say
Senate blocks proposal to conduct ‘full audit’ of the Fed
‘Audit the Fed’ bill fails to secure support needed to proceed to Senate floor; Bernanke joins ranks of current and former Fed officials warning of potential threat to independence
Villeroy de Galhau and Fischer express caution over inflation target change
There could be costs to changing inflation targets in response to persistent low inflation, say François Villeroy de Galhau, Christian Noyer and Stanley Fischer
Hungarian central bank eases by scrapping deposit facility
The central bank announces the closure of its two-week deposit facility in April, in a move it hopes will lead banks to buy government bonds and lower long-term yields
Financial market risk being pushed into ETFs, Noyer warns
Central bankers must develop oversight of ETFs and similar securities, Noyer tells farewell seminar; must also convince markets and public of opposition to low inflation and deflation
PBoC looks to expand lending programme for SMEs
Central bank to 'steadily advance' refinancing scheme as economy expected to slow further; Ma Jun clarifies PBoC's position on exchange rate fluctuations
IMF supports tighter monetary policy in Mozambique
Rate rises are necessary to counter the inflationary pressures of currency depreciation, Fund says
Spanish paper models synergies between demand and supply policies in monetary union
Working paper model sees benefits in jointly implementing structural reforms in the ‘periphery’ of a union, with fiscal expansion in the ‘core’ and forward guidance on interest rates
Bank of England paper explores exchange rate pass-through using ‘big data’
Author finds the pass-through to import prices varies depending on the size of the exchange rate movement at the micro level, but it is a different story at the macro level