Monetary Policy
Monetary easing ‘likely’ required over summer, says Carney
Governor expects easing in wake of UK vote to leave the EU; announces additional weekly liquidity operations as part of response, but acknowledges limits to what BoE can achieve
Fed’s Powell sees potential for ‘new headwinds’ in Brexit
Governor says global risks to US outlook have increased in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU
Effective lower bound has ‘tail risk’ influence on monetary policy, ECB paper argues
The ‘tail risk’ induced by the possibility of rates reaching their effective lower bound can cause serious undershooting of inflation targets, an ECB working paper argues
Draghi: Central bankers must align policies
ECB president calls for greater alignment and better communication of economic policy across national borders; calls for globally co-ordinated fiscal expansion on lines of 2008-09
Reserve Bank of Malawi to improve monetary policy architecture
Bank moves towards fully fledged inflation targeting, embracing interest rate-based framework; IMF staff note importance of maintaining tight monetary policy
Rajan has left his mark but risk of fiscal dominance remains
Vishrut Kansal examines the legal framework Raghuram Rajan’s successor will face, arguing much of the outgoing RBI governor’s work will continue but more safeguards are needed
Bank of Israel sees ‘Brexit’ increasing risks to outlook
Monetary committee warns it is too early to tell whether short-term effect on financial markets has run its course; Flug stresses both central bank and finance ministry “keeping close watch”
BoJ paper models impact of guidance on expectations
Announcing forward guidance before reaching the effective lower bound can help to “positively influence” inflation and output growth, the author finds
PBoC governor sets out challenges of pursuing multiple objectives
Zhou Xiaochuan discusses how the People’s Bank of China expresses its multiple objectives as a function that can be optimised, while noting challenges posed to modelling and communications
BoE seen shifting into easing mode
Many economists view Bank of England as likely to shift towards an easing bias, but the central bank may find itself with limited room for manoeuvre
Kiuchi says BoJ must communicate better
Board member concerned monetary policy is becoming less predictable as observers expect ever more easing; warns against use of negative rates
National Reserve Bank of Tonga considering short-term policy rate, IMF says
Fund staff encourage Tonga to reform its monetary policy framework; suggest introducing new policy rate and inflation target range more appropriate to historic and current levels
Governor: Philippines central bank to keep ‘steady hand’ on monetary policy
Philippines central bank to keep watchful eye on uncertainty surrounding advanced economies’ policy prospects; inflation environment remains ‘manageable’
Fed should prepare to communicate inflation overshoot – IMF
IMF urges Fed to continue on “very gradual” path in raising benchmark rate; central bank should tolerate inflation overshoot to stop expectations drifting down
Jamaican authorities send mixed messages on adoption of inflation targeting
IMF tells central bank to focus on single mandate but Jamaican authorities say more time is needed to investigate whether path is suitable
IMF paper explores transmission of volatility along yield curve
Working paper finds differences in transmission between countries with established inflation-targeting frameworks and those in transition
German Constitutional Court rules in favour of ECB programme
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court rules ECB may undertake outright monetary transactions, but sets strict conditions to be monitored by the German government
Kuroda says policy rules deserve further research
BoJ governor says work on policy rules and “incomplete contract theory” could help central bankers set policy more predictably
IMF staff warn BoJ against unconventional monetary policies
Fund staff tell Japan to launch even more fiscal and monetary stimulus, but caution against monetisation of the government's debt
Yellen offers helicopter money cautious support
Fed chair says central banks could "legitimately consider" stimulus by financing government spending but only in "extreme" circumstances and with an eye on the many cases where it has gone wrong
BoE seen facing tough task in event of Brexit
Economists see Bank of England faced with task of stabilising financial markets while currency plummets and economy slows, making policy decisions tough; Carney hits back at critics
Yellen says July hike ‘not impossible’ as Fed holds
Fed keeps policy unchanged as widely anticipated; expected path of interest rate hikes becomes more gradual while the long-run level is revised down again
LatAm policy-makers were possibly ‘excessively optimistic’ over economic potential, BIS paper says
Downplaying commodity super-cycle may have led to incorrect assessment of economic potential in Latin America, paper says; may have skewed monetary and fiscal policies
Sri Lanka targets new inflation framework under reform programme
Authorities will take steps towards inflation targeting over the coming years, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility; IMF agrees to support reform programme