Monetary Policy
Brexit drives a wedge between BoE and markets
Market expectations of future UK interest rates appear out of line with views expressed by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. It comes at a time when Brexit ‘news’ often trumps economic data
Czech central bank raises interest rates for first time in nine years
Legacy of currency defence may cause future problems, analyst argues
Turkish inflation begins to fall amid economic strength
Inflation fell back to single digits in July for the first time since January; economy buoyant amid stimulus measures in wake of failed coup
Fed can no longer ‘wait and see’, says Williams
Waiting to unwind the balance sheet could “overheat the economy”, says San Fran president, who believes the US has “fully recovered” from the recession
BoE: market pricing implies two rate rises in next three years
Markets project first rate rise in Q3 2018, but committee says tightening may need to come sooner; MPC sees mixed picture for labour market
RBI makes first rate cut of 2017
Inflation is at a record low, and growth is forecast to rebound, although the RBI is still concerned about weak transmission of the policy rate
Stanley Fischer analyses the factors behind low real interest rates
The economist emphasises government policy uncertainty in the US regarding health care, regulation, taxes and trade, as well as higher savings and weak investment
QE could create balance sheet problems – Irish deputy governor
Eurozone’s asset purchase programme increases the interest rate risk for central banks, Donnery and co-authors write
Swedish GDP growth beats forecast, adding to bank’s concerns
Inflation remains below the 2% target, despite lower unemployment, leaving the Riksbank reluctant to change course and raise rates before the summer of 2018
Central banks must exit asset purchase programmes with care, paper finds
Bundesbank paper uses model of eurozone to judge effects of asset purchases
Kganyago: monetary policy can't solve South Africa’s structural issues
Governor defends mandate, saying Sarb is focusing on what it “can do”, not “what it would like to do”; no “narrow focus”
Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet ‘relatively soon’
Rates remain on hold as the FOMC eyes below-target inflation, while the wording change implies that action on the balance sheet could begin sooner than previously expected
Favourable inflation prompts 100bp cut in Brazilian interest rate
Central bank continues easing cycle as political uncertainty not feeding through to inflation; analysts expect another large cut this year
Evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies spells trouble for emerging markets – paper
Research explores the impact future monetary policy will have on emerging markets, concluding many will be forced to implement defensive measures
Neutral rate down to around 3.5% in New Zealand – RBNZ deputy
Rate is challenging to estimate but central bank’s models and surveys suggest it has fallen in recent years to around 3.5%
Fintech not an ‘immediate threat’ to monetary policy – paper
Research from the Bank of Canada explores the impact fintech could have on central banks’ responsibilities, deeming it “too early to judge” the effect on mandates
Uzbekistan to press ahead with forex reforms
Authorities plan to “frontload” efforts to unite black market and official exchange rates, allowing the central bank to focus on stabilising prices
Inflation expectations down in ECB forecaster survey
Forecasters see inflation falling slightly, despite rising employment and GDP growth
Mozambique central bank praised for monetary framework overhaul
IMF staff approve of changes made towards interest rate corridor, but say the central bank should remain vigilant with regard to prudential regulation