Monetary Policy
Rethinking policy transmission in the age of AI
Managing machine expectations related to faster, more non-linear and potentially asymmetric price dynamics will require analytical innovation and potentially new forms of oversight, argues Elisa Vilorio de Painter
Emerging market central banks should be hawkish – NBER paper
Stronger reactions to inflation surges help to build institutions’ reputations, researchers argue
Is independence compatible with climate action?
Lessons from China indicate relationship between governments and central banks may need to change, argues Mathias Larsen
RBA holds policy as inflation rises
Australian central bank’s inflation forecast assumes one further rate cut in easing cycle
Fed accepts wealth redistribution at top, says ex-Kansas City chief
Hoenig calls for new accord with Treasury, as fellow former governors defend Fed independence
Researchers revisit 20-year forecast for global monetary system
Eichengreen and Razo-Garcia predict further move towards polarised exchange rate regimes
Montenegro to give out €2,000 for each baby born this week
‘Savings week’ sees central bank team up with lenders to offer parents financial rewards
Working group minutes: central banks face balance sheet challenges
Some institutions are struggling to absorb large amounts of excess liquidity
ECB holds rates for third consecutive time
Lagarde celebrates ‘fading risks’ to eurozone growth thanks to trade deals and Gaza ceasefire
Japan holds rates, as expected, with two dissenting votes
BoJ governor says there is no ‘preset idea’ on future rate rises after dissenters call for 25bp hike
Changing balance sheet composition mostly reflects normalisation
Gold buying and FX interventions drive changes in some jurisdictions
Fed cuts rates with dissenting votes in both directions
Risks to employment and prices split FOMC three ways
Bank of Canada makes modest rate cut
Economists disagree over wisdom of decision at time of above-target inflation and soft labour markets
Give BoJ policy space to fight inflation, says Bessent
US Treasury secretary hints at preference for rate hikes before Japan’s central bank meets
Inflation targeters mainly use corridor systems to set interest rates
But many central banks with exchange rate controls also use corridor systems
PBoC to resume open market China bond trading
Analysts expect purchases by central bank to support liquidity and government fiscal policy
Policy impact widely gauged by macro and market indicators
Policy-making frameworks commonly reviewed on ad hoc basis
Miran threatens Fed independence and lacks credible analysis, say experts
Economists disagree with governor's assessments of neutral rate and forthcoming inflation
Quarter of central banks have government reps on MPC
Only one such committee publishes policy-makers’ votes
Half of central banks offer no forward guidance
MPCs that meet at above-average frequency less likely to observe blackout period
Career concerns can lead to better FOMC voting – NBER paper
Study examines range of biases among Fed decision-makers
MPCs with more frequent meetings tend to be more transparent
Just under three-tenths of central banks publish current level of r-star
BoK holds policy at 2.5% and signals room for further cuts
Rhee Chang Yong says four of six board members open to cutting to 2.25% over next three months