Scenario analysis difficult to get right, say BoE watchers
Economists welcome attempt to convey uncertainty but criticise aspects of central bank’s reforms
Scenario analysis can be a useful guide to policy, but it also risks confusing the central bank’s message or failing to convey useful information, economists said at a recent event.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) gathered former central bankers, academic economists and market participants for a closed-door debate on the Bank of England’s recent communication reforms on November 25. NIESR published a summary of the discussion on December 21.
The BoE has been
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