Financial Stability
Danish economists test measure of systemic risk
National Bank of Denmark paper uses ‘SRISK’ measure to assess systemic risk in the Danish financial sector, finding it was a good predictor of banks that needed bailing out
Research compares borrower-based macro-pru tools
Debt service-to-income caps generate ‘less pronounced macro feedback’ in the short term than loan-to-value limits, working paper finds
Bank recapitalisation is a ‘powerful’ policy instrument, paper suggests
Economy likely to remain in an ‘anaemic state’ until certain conditions met, research says; bank recapitalisation more effective than fiscal expansion in encouraging aggregate demand
Canadian deputy warns limits to macro-prudential tools may impact monetary policy
Timothy Lane says fiscal policy may have to step into the breach and provide stimulus when using monetary policy would risk creating ‘vulnerabilities’ macro-prudential policy can’t offset
NZ has ample space to respond to risks – IMF staff
An International Monetary Fund staff report says there is room to ease monetary policy further if need be, while authorities should prepare more prudential measures
RBI report lays ground for trading new derivatives
Working group proposes allowing new interest rate options in India to improve financial institutions' ability to hedge interest rate risk
BoE’s Cunliffe: UK may be close to debt sustainability limit
Deputy governor says analysis of recent UK credit cycle suggests rises in debt may leave the economy vulnerable; Cunliffe would consider action if debt-to-GDP ratio rises
China relaxes QFII limits amid calls for capital controls
FX regulator shortens ‘lock-up’ period, during which foreign investors must wait before repatriating funds, from one year to three months
IMF staff call for clarity on Morocco macro-prudential body
Staff report calls on government to clarify powers of inter-agency committee chaired by central bank governor; separate assessment details work on toolkit
German and French central bank heads back creation of eurozone Treasury
Weidmann and Villeroy de Galhau issue joint call for more integrated eurozone, potentially including joint treasury; alternative would mean different approach to sovereign risk
Paper models complications to systemic financial shock responses
Different classes of illiquid asset and different types of banking network produce complicated responses to systemic financial shocks, Bank of Italy working paper argues
RBI’s Gandhi: are regulators ‘barking up the right trees’?
Deputy governor stresses effective regulation is not about ever more detailed rules but rather taking a broad view and spotting emerging risks early on
BIS data sheds light on complex shift in global liquidity
There are signs global liquidity might be going into reverse for emerging markets; digging into the data shows situation is more complicated than aggregate figures imply
Ukraine governor reveals move towards inflation targeting
Ukraine’s central bank is already setting policy with an eye on an inflation target while it awaits a formal mandate, its governor says; banking ‘cleanup’ is ‘near the finish line’
Illiquidity, concentrated bond holding raise volatility – paper
The volatility of financial market price shocks in the Bund and taper tantrums was aggravated by illiquidity and concentrated holdings of bonds, working paper finds
Italian banking episode shows supervision working well, Nouy says
Handling of problems with Italian banks shows regulators have the right systems in place, Danièle Nouy says; there might be skeletons, but they are ‘not in the cupboard’
IMF staff urge caution on Kyrgyz de-dollarisation plans
Central bank plans to support borrowers with foreign currency exposures, but IMF team warns this must be backed by other policies; action also needed on central bank independence, it says
Weaker shareholder liability need not mean more risk-taking, Riksbank paper finds
Study of abolition of double liability in Canada finds bank riskiness did not increase; authors suggest weaker incentives for shareholders were offset by closer scrutiny by depositors
ECB’s Angeloni wants analysis of macro-prudential measures ‘at some stage’
Supervisory board member says analysis will be important in the future, partly because it will help identify ‘scope’ of potential ECB actions
Riksbank pushes for FSA to gain stronger tools amid delays
Amortisation requirement looks set to enter force in June, but more powerful tools for Swedish FSA may be delayed; government says negotiations take time, and it fears triggering crisis
Draghi says ‘risk of side effects’ will not stand in ECB’s way
Mario Draghi says the European Central Bank will not be deterred by the ‘unintended consequences’ of its asset-purchase programme, ahead of a key March governing council decision