Economics
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Cubero calls for expanded IMF role
Costa Rica governor endorses Resilience and Stability Trust proposal
Unemployment falls across North America
US recovery is weaker than expected, while Canada reaches pre-pandemic jobs levels
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
BIS paper outlines model of managed floats
Framework captures financial frictions while being simpler than other models, authors say
Evergrande tests China’s commitment to deleveraging
Chinese officials are having to choose between near-term growth and long-term economic health
Greater competition cut US banks’ ‘insider lending’ – BdF paper
Researchers quantify bank owners’ and executives’ loans to themselves and their interests
US PCE inflation rises to 4.3%
Fed’s preferred rate reaches new high in August, but “trimmed” measure steady at 2%
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Inequality sharpens monetary policy’s effects – ECB paper
Author analyses “inequality channel” using model with three types of heterogeneous agent
Foreign vulnerabilities can affect domestic growth – BoE paper
Study of ‘GDP-at-risk’ shows financial factors overseas can lead to worse outcomes locally
Bundesbank paper looks at short sellers in the pandemic
Short sellers saw Covid-19 would strongly affect fiscally constrained countries - paper
BDF paper analyses banks’ capital buffers
Researchers suggest new approach to setting banks’ structural and cyclical reserve levels
MMT and the challenge of fiscal monetary co-ordination
Sayuri Shirai contrasts modern monetary theory with regimes of monetary or fiscal dominance
Above-target inflation may push Riksbank to taper
Inflation rose from 1.7% in July to 2.4% in August
No IMF bias towards ‘excessive austerity’, report finds
But Independent Evaluation Office says fund has been too optimistic in its forecasts
Demand shocks can have permanent impact on US economy – Fed paper
Authors find hysteresis is an important driver of longer-term growth trend in US
Pandemic Treasuries market calmed quickly – research
Dallas Fed analysis finds “headwinds” early on, but not lasting pandemic disruptions
Bank Indonesia tells banks to provide financing to SMEs
As much as 30% of banks’ loan books will need to be directed to small businesses
Lending rate rigidity weakens eurozone monetary policy – BdF paper
Asymmetric costs in changing bank lending reduce effects of looser policy
Germany should aim to cut corporate savings – ECB paper
Investment and banking reforms are needed to cut German firms’ savings, say researchers
PBoC to provide 300 billion yuan to SMEs
State Council calls on central bank to step in as Delta variant shows signs of denting growth
Eurozone inflation reaches 10-year high at 3%
Rapid rise in energy prices was main driver, according to Eurostat estimates