BoE paper quantifies output gap estimation errors


A discussion paper, published by the Bank of England on July 9, studies whether the size or composition of revisions to output gap estimates by the OECD have changed over time.

Authors Adrian Chiu and Tomasz Wieladek use OECD data on output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991–2005 to assess whether there has been an improvement in accuracy. The paper finds statisticians reduced the distortion created by data noise over the period, but that the absolute size of revisions actually increased.

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